CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali First League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Sofia 4-1 Arda Kardzhali.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% CSKA Sofia, 30% draw, 28% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
Line-ups
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 19A. YordanovM
- 5J. GbaminM
- 14T. IvanovD
- 2PastorD
- 6Bruno JordãoM
- 8S. SensiM
- 99J. Eto'oM
- 67C. ItuM
- 28I. PittasF
- 10J. ZwartsF
- 30P. PanayotovM
- 32Facundo Santiago RodríguezD
- 94I. Solet BomawokoM
- 4Dinis AlmeidaD
- 11M. BrahimiF
- 80G. ChorbadzhiyskiM
- 37B. CotterD
- 25D. EvtimovG
- 9S. GodoyF
- 1A. GospodinovG
- 6V. PopovD
- 24M. PaskalevD
- 5V. LyubenovD
- 21V. VelevD
- 80L. KotevM
- 10S. KovachevF
- 91S. IvanovF
- 8D. YankovM
- 99B. KaragarenF
- 9G. NikolovF
- 35D. VelkovskiD
- 18S. VasilevD
- 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
- 11A. KabovF
- 22Y. GeorgievG
- 16P. BachevF
- 26B. AkandzhaM
- 39A. VutovM
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
CSKA Sofia
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
- W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
- L0-2OFI27 August 2026
- L0-3away to OFI20 August 2026
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
Arda Kardzhali
First League
- L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 30 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
- 6 February 2026CSKA Sofia 3–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 18 September 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 31 May 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 26 February 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Arda KardzhaliCup
- 16 February 2025CSKA Sofia 2–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
Leading scorers: CSKA Sofia and Arda Kardzhali
CSKA Sofia
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Jordão20
- I. Pittas10
Arda Kardzhali
GoalsAssists
- B. Karagaren11
- S. Kovachev10
- A. Kabov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CSKA Sofia beat Arda Kardzhali 4–1. The model had made a win for CSKA Sofia its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Birsent Karagaren 2' for Arda Kardzhali, Stefano Sensi (penalty) 41' for CSKA Sofia, Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira 48' for CSKA Sofia, Joel·Zwarts 53' for CSKA Sofia, Ioannis Pittas (penalty) 72' for CSKA Sofia.
How the call on CSKA Sofia v Arda Kardzhali has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 32% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is CSKA Sofia's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- CSKA Sofia win42%▲ +5
- Draw30%▼ −2
- Arda Kardzhali win28%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.