CSKA Sofia
vs
Arda Kardzhali
First League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Sofia 4-1 Arda Kardzhali.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% CSKA Sofia, 28% draw, 26% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.71, Arda Kardzhali 0.98.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
Line-ups
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 19A. YordanovM
- 5J. GbaminM
- 14T. IvanovD
- 2PastorD
- 6Bruno JordãoM
- 8S. SensiM
- 99J. Eto'oM
- 67C. ItuM
- 28I. PittasF
- 10J. ZwartsF
- 30P. PanayotovM
- 32Facundo Santiago RodríguezD
- 94I. Solet BomawokoM
- 4Dinis AlmeidaD
- 11M. BrahimiF
- 80G. ChorbadzhiyskiM
- 37B. CotterD
- 25D. EvtimovG
- 9S. GodoyF
- 1A. GospodinovG
- 6V. PopovD
- 24M. PaskalevD
- 5V. LyubenovD
- 21V. VelevD
- 80L. KotevM
- 10S. KovachevF
- 91S. IvanovF
- 8D. YankovM
- 99B. KaragarenF
- 9G. NikolovF
- 35D. VelkovskiD
- 18S. VasilevD
- 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
- 11A. KabovF
- 22Y. GeorgievG
- 16P. BachevF
- 26B. AkandzhaM
- 39A. VutovM
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
CSKA Sofia
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
- W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia9 August 2026
Arda Kardzhali
- L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
- W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv24 August 2026
- W3-1Lokomotiv Sofia17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 20 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
- 12 September 2026CSKA Sofia 4–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 6 February 2026CSKA Sofia 3–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 18 September 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 31 May 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 26 February 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Arda KardzhaliCup
- 16 February 2025CSKA Sofia 2–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.71 goals for CSKA Sofia and 0.98 for Arda Kardzhali; the game produced 4 and 1.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Birsent Karagaren 2' (Arda Kardzhali), Stefano Sensi 41' (CSKA Sofia), Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira 48' (CSKA Sofia), Joel·Zwarts 53' (CSKA Sofia), Ioannis Pittas 72' (CSKA Sofia).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for CSKA Sofia against 0.98 for Arda Kardzhali. CSKA Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.42 for Arda Kardzhali.