11 September 2026, 03:05 UTC

Pumas UNAM vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result

Mexico City
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Pumas UNAM 3-1 Leon.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Pumas UNAM, 30% draw, 30% Leon — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pumas UNAM at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pumas UNAM99%Draw1%Leon0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Cristian Calderonout: Ángel Azuaje
22'
Ángel Azuaje
23'
43'
Juan Dominguez
⚽Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnioassist: Rodrigo López
45'
45'
🔁Juan Dominguezout: Diber Cambindo
53'
⚽Jose Alvarado
61'
🔁Jose Rodriguezout: Rodrigo Echeverría
🔁Carlos Antunaout: Alan Medina
65'
⚽Robert Moralesassist: Luciano Herrera
70'
71'
🔁Jose Alvaradoout: Fernando Beltran
71'
🔁Christopher Moraout: Salvador Reyes
🔁Victor Arteagaout: Israel Luna
74'
🔁Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnioout: Adalberto Carrasquilla
74'
🔁Rodrigo Lópezout: Jesús Rivas
74'
⚽Pedro Viteassist: Alan Medina
87'
Luciano Herrera
90+4'

Match stats — Pumas UNAM vs Leon

42%Possession58%
14Shots13
5On target3
8Corners2

Line-ups

Pumas UNAM 3-4-2-1
  • 1K. NavasG
  • 6Nathan SilvaD
  • 5Rubén DuarteD
  • 12C. CalderónD
  • 7R. LópezM
  • 18V. ArteagaM
  • 45P. ViteM
  • 14L. HerreraM
  • 21U. AntunaM
  • 31R. MoralesM
  • 23JuninhoF
Substitutes
  • 34Á. AzuajeD
  • 202Julio Cesar Dominguez CastillejosD
  • 8A. CarrasquillaM
  • 35P. LaraG
  • 15I. LunaM
  • 30Santiago López LópezF
  • 22A. MedinaF
  • 13P. MonroyD
  • 19J. RivasD
Coach: E. Solari
Leon 4-1-4-1
  • 23Ó. GarcíaG
  • 7I. MorenoD
  • 14J. RomañaD
  • 25P. BellónD
  • 185C. MoraD
  • 29J. RodríguezM
  • 16J. CortizoM
  • 8J. DomínguezM
  • 13D. ArcilaM
  • 11I. DíazM
  • 19J. AlvaradoF
Substitutes
  • 27D. CambindoF
  • 4B. ColulaD
  • 20R. EcheverríaD
  • 15S. FierroM
  • 12J. GonzálezG
  • 203J. LaraM
  • 26S. ReyesM
  • 5S. VegasD
  • 33A. VillegasD
Coach: J. Gandolfi

Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Leon

Pumas UNAM

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
  • D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
  • D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
  • W5-1away to FC Juarez1 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Toluca22 July 2026

Leon

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
  • W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
  • W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Pumas UNAM conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Leon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Leon had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Leon

  • 18 January 2026Pumas UNAM 1–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 26 October 2025Leon 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 31 March 2025Leon 1–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 7 July 2024Pumas UNAM 4–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 15 April 2024Pumas UNAM 1–0 LeonLiga MX

The full Pumas UNAM vs Leon record →

Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Leon

Pumas UNAM

GoalsAssists

  • Juninho81
  • R. Morales44

Leon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Alvarado51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pumas UNAM beat Leon 3–1. The model had made a win for Pumas UNAM its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnio 45' for Pumas UNAM, Jose Alvarado 53' for Leon, Robert Morales 70' for Pumas UNAM, Pedro Vite 87' for Pumas UNAM.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.