11 September 2026, 03:05 UTC

Pumas UNAM vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result

Mexico City
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Pumas UNAM 3-1 Leon.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Pumas UNAM, 30% draw, 30% Leon — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pumas UNAM at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pumas UNAM99%Draw1%Leon0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Cristian Calderonout: Ángel Azuaje
22'
Ángel Azuaje
23'
43'
Juan Dominguez
⚽Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnioassist: Rodrigo López
45'
45'
🔁Juan Dominguezout: Diber Cambindo
53'
⚽Jose Alvarado
61'
🔁Jose Rodriguezout: Rodrigo Echeverría
🔁Carlos Antunaout: Alan Medina
65'
⚽Robert Moralesassist: Luciano Herrera
70'
71'
🔁Jose Alvaradoout: Fernando Beltran
71'
🔁Christopher Moraout: Salvador Reyes
🔁Victor Arteagaout: Israel Luna
74'
🔁Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnioout: Adalberto Carrasquilla
74'
🔁Rodrigo Lópezout: Jesús Rivas
74'
⚽Pedro Viteassist: Alan Medina
87'
Luciano Herrera
90+4'

Match stats — Pumas UNAM vs Leon

42%Possession58%
14Shots13
5On target3
8Corners2

Line-ups

Pumas UNAM 3-4-2-1
  • 1K. NavasG
  • 6Nathan SilvaD
  • 5Rubén DuarteD
  • 12C. CalderónD
  • 7R. LópezM
  • 18V. ArteagaM
  • 45P. ViteM
  • 14L. HerreraM
  • 21U. AntunaM
  • 31R. MoralesM
  • 23JuninhoF
Substitutes
  • 34Á. AzuajeD
  • 202Julio Cesar Dominguez CastillejosD
  • 8A. CarrasquillaM
  • 35P. LaraG
  • 15I. LunaM
  • 30Santiago López LópezF
  • 22A. MedinaF
  • 13P. MonroyD
  • 19J. RivasD
Coach: E. Solari
Leon 4-1-4-1
  • 23Ó. GarcíaG
  • 7I. MorenoD
  • 14J. RomañaD
  • 25P. BellónD
  • 185C. MoraD
  • 29J. RodríguezM
  • 16J. CortizoM
  • 8J. DomínguezM
  • 13D. ArcilaM
  • 11I. DíazM
  • 19J. AlvaradoF
Substitutes
  • 27D. CambindoF
  • 4B. ColulaD
  • 20R. EcheverríaD
  • 15S. FierroM
  • 12J. GonzálezG
  • 203J. LaraM
  • 26S. ReyesM
  • 5S. VegasD
  • 33A. VillegasD
Coach: J. Gandolfi

Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Leon

Pumas UNAM

  • L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
  • D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
  • D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026

Leon

  • D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
  • W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Pumas UNAM83231112-111
6Leon8413119+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Leon

  • 11 September 2026Pumas UNAM 3–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 18 January 2026Pumas UNAM 1–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 26 October 2025Leon 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 31 March 2025Leon 1–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 7 July 2024Pumas UNAM 4–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 15 April 2024Pumas UNAM 1–0 LeonLiga MX

Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Leon

Pumas UNAM

  • Juninho4 goals

Leon

  • D. Arcila3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.