Regular Season - 9 · 12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

CSKA 1948 vs Dunav Ruse First League prediction & result

Bistritsa Stadium, Sofia
Full time2 – 1

Final score: CSKA 1948 2-1 Dunav Ruse.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% CSKA 1948, 27% draw, 20% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: CSKA 1948 2.01, Dunav Ruse 0.81.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: CSKA 1948 vs Dunav Ruse

49%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 12%1-0 11%1-1 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CSKA 1948 at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA 19487%Draw91%Dunav Ruse2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Mamadou Dialloassist: Frederic Maciel
4'
24'
Vladan Vidaković
🔁Frederic Macielout: Brian Sobrero
46'
46'
⚽jordan louis saintassist: Kristiyan Boychev
62'
•Alexander Valiño Navasal
66'
🔁Vladan Vidakovićout: Stefan Gavrilov
🔁Mamadou Dialloout: Elias Correa Franco
72'
🔁Jules Meyerout: Borislav Tsonev
73'
79'
🔁Kristiyan Boychevout: Elie Sou
79'
🔁Alexander Valiño Navasalout: Ibrahim Keita
🔁Moataz Zemzemiout: Florian Krebs
80'
🔁Diego Medinaout: Dragan Grivić
80'
89'
dimitar todorov
⚽Dragan Grivić
90'
90+1'
🔁Radoslav Apostolovout: charles appiah
90+1'
🔁denislav minchevout: Ilker Budinov
90+4'
jose cabarcas

Match stats — CSKA 1948 vs Dunav Ruse

56%Possession44%
12Shots6
5On target5
7Corners7

Line-ups

CSKA 1948 4-4-2
  • 31A. BozhevG
  • 22O. GaševićF
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 33H. CuellarD
  • 2D. MedinaD
  • 67Frédéric MacielF
  • 8M. ZemzemiM
  • 30J. MeyerM
  • 11G. RusevF
  • 9A. IlievF
  • 93M. DialloF
Substitutes
  • 5B. BenamarD
  • 77Elias FrancoF
  • 96D. GrivićD
  • 4A. HoffmannD
  • 70K. IlievD
  • 23F. KrebsM
  • 13D. SheytanovG
  • 20B. SobreroM
  • 14K. StrinskiM
Coach: Ognyan Mladenov
Dunav Ruse 3-5-2
  • 33G. KitanovG
  • 22S. PredevD
  • 4J. CabarcasD
  • 39Andre AlvesD
  • 23Jordan Layn Saint-LouisM
  • 10K. BoychevM
  • 14R. ApostolovM
  • 44V. VidakovićM
  • 88D. TodorovD
  • 9Álex ValiñoF
  • 11D. MinchevF
Substitutes
  • 6S. YovkovD
  • 19S. StefanovM
  • 78E. SouM
  • 77A. SimeonovF
  • 69P. PepelyashevG
  • 18I. KeïtaF
  • 24S. GavrilovM
  • 2M. DilchovskiD
  • 51I. BudinovD
Coach: E. Lukanov

Form going into CSKA 1948 vs Dunav Ruse

CSKA 1948

  • L0-1away to Levski Sofia5 September 2026
  • W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv28 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Septemvri Sofia23 August 2026
  • W4-1Cherno More Varna14 August 2026

Dunav Ruse

  • L0-1Slavia Sofia7 September 2026
  • D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia31 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Cherno More Varna21 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4CSKA 19489612179+819
14Dunav Ruse9117817-94

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs Dunav Ruse

  • 12 September 2026CSKA 1948 2–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
  • 26 September 2019CSKA 1948 2–1 Dunav RuseCup

Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and Dunav Ruse

CSKA 1948

  • Frédéric Maciel1 goals

Dunav Ruse

No player in First League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.01 goals for CSKA 1948 and 0.81 for Dunav Ruse; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Mamadou Diallo 4' (CSKA 1948), jordan louis saint 46' (Dunav Ruse), Dragan Grivić 90' (CSKA 1948).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives CSKA 1948 the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for CSKA 1948 against 0.81 for Dunav Ruse. CSKA 1948's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.57 for Dunav Ruse.