Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Rodina Moskva.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Krylia Sovetov, 25% draw, 26% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Krylia Sovetov at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva
Line-ups
- 80N. KokarevG
- 15N. RasskazovD
- 23N. ChernovD
- 47S. BozhinD
- 4Y. GorshkovD
- 22Fernando CostanzaM
- 77D. MakarovM
- 10M. KramaričM
- 8M. VityugovM
- 2K. PecheninM
- 11A. RahmanovićF
- 7M. BanjacM
- 67Kazbek MukailovF
- 14N. SaltykovM
- 73V. ShitovF
- 5D. OrozD
- 97I. AkhmetovM
- 17I. ChesnokovM
- 72Dani FernándezD
- 20K. StolbovM
- 13S. VolkovG
- 88A. SokolD
- 26A. MeshchaninovD
- 75M. NadéD
- 3L. GoglichidzeD
- 72A. GordyushenkoM
- 38L. MusaevM
- 8Iker PozoM
- 9A. MaksimenkoM
- 10Y. ReynaF
- 99I. TimoshenkoF
- 17S. BakaevM
- 80S. BessmertnyD
- 49I. DyatlovD
- 5A. EgorychevM
- 6R. FishchenkoM
- 77A. GharibyanF
- 55M. KrižanD
- 11B. MansillaF
- 19D. TananeevD
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva
Krylia Sovetov
- D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
- W3-0away to Akron23 August 2026
- L1-4Dinamo Makhachkala16 August 2026
Rodina Moskva
- L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
- L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dynamo23 August 2026
- D3-3Akron15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva
- 11 September 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–1 Rodina MoskvaPremier League
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and Rodina Moskva
Krylia Sovetov
- I. Oleynikov3 goals2 assists
Rodina Moskva
- A. Maksimenko3 goals1 assists
- Iker Pozo2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.