Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Rodina Moskva.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Krylia Sovetov, 25% draw, 26% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Krylia Sovetov at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva
Line-ups
- 80N. KokarevG
- 15N. RasskazovD
- 23N. ChernovD
- 47S. BozhinD
- 4Y. GorshkovD
- 22Fernando CostanzaM
- 77D. MakarovM
- 10M. KramaričM
- 8M. VityugovM
- 2K. PecheninM
- 11A. RahmanovićF
- 7M. BanjacM
- 67Kazbek MukailovF
- 14N. SaltykovM
- 73V. ShitovF
- 5D. OrozD
- 97I. AkhmetovM
- 17I. ChesnokovM
- 72Dani FernándezD
- 20K. StolbovM
- 13S. VolkovG
- 88A. SokolD
- 26A. MeshchaninovD
- 75M. NadéD
- 3L. GoglichidzeD
- 72A. GordyushenkoM
- 38L. MusaevM
- 8Iker PozoM
- 9A. MaksimenkoM
- 10Y. ReynaF
- 99I. TimoshenkoF
- 17S. BakaevM
- 80S. BessmertnyD
- 49I. DyatlovD
- 5A. EgorychevM
- 6R. FishchenkoM
- 77A. GharibyanF
- 55M. KrižanD
- 11B. MansillaF
- 19D. TananeevD
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva
Krylia Sovetov
All competitions we cover
- D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
- W3-0away to Akron23 August 2026
- L1-4Dinamo Makhachkala16 August 2026
- L0-2Baltika8 August 2026
Rodina Moskva
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
- L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dynamo23 August 2026
- D3-3Akron15 August 2026
- W2-1away to Zenit9 August 2026
What these results say
- Krylia Sovetov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rodina Moskva had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 15 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and Rodina Moskva
Krylia Sovetov
GoalsAssists
- A. Rahmanović40
- M. Kramarič31
Rodina Moskva
GoalsAssists
- A. Maksimenko31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Krylia Sovetov beat Rodina Moskva 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Krylia Sovetov at 49%. The goals: Ivan Timoshenko 59' for Rodina Moskva, Martin Kramarič 64' for Krylia Sovetov, Kirill Stolbov 88' for Krylia Sovetov.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.