Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets First League prediction & result
Final score: Lokomotiv Sofia 1-2 Ludogorets.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lokomotiv Sofia, 28% draw, 31% Ludogorets — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 24A. LyubenovG
- 6EiroD
- 3K. KostovD
- 44B. KatsarovD
- 14A. LyaskovD
- 5E. DostM
- 31K. StanoevM
- 77Caue Caruzo
- 20D. KostadinovM
- 7S. DelevM
- 9G. MinchevF
- 19M. MitkovD
- 99M. VelichkovG
- 21K. ChachevM
- 71N. PenevM
- 22R. DaskalovD
- 26K. MiloshevM
- 17M. PapazovM
- 42N. NeychevD
- 16M. MedfaiM
- 39H. BonmannG
- 17SonD
- 4H. AbdelmaguidD
- 3A. NedyalkovD
- 42S. ShishkovD
- 23D. DuarteM
- 40A. MarinovM
- 18I. ChochevM
- 14P. StanicM
- 37B. TekpeteyM
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 82I. YordanovM
- 2J. AnderssonD
- 13I. GrbicG
- 15E. KurtulusD
- 22M. PolendakovD
- 26F. KalocM
- 7A. Salido TajeroF
- 20A. CamaraM
- 77Erick MarcusM
Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Sofia
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
- L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
Ludogorets
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
- D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets
- 6 September 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 LudogoretsFirst League
- 7 February 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–3 LudogoretsFirst League
- 17 August 2025Ludogorets 0–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 9 March 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 LudogoretsFirst League
- 21 September 2024Ludogorets 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 16 March 2024Ludogorets 6–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.