Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
Ludogorets
First League prediction
The model makes it 38% Lokomotiv Sofia, 22% draw, 40% Ludogorets — fair odds of 2.63, 4.55 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.83, Ludogorets 1.91.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lokomotiv Sofia
- L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv21 July 2026
Ludogorets
- D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
- W2-0Botev Plovdiv15 August 2026
- W3-2away to Cherno More Varna9 August 2026
- W2-1Botev Vratsa2 August 2026
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
| 1 | Ludogorets | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv Sofia carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.52 for Ludogorets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Lokomotiv Sofia D-L-D-L-L; Ludogorets W-W-W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.91 for Ludogorets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.77 in attack and 2.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ludogorets rate 0.64 and 1.26.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia against 1.91 for Ludogorets. Lokomotiv Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.77/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.26 for Ludogorets.