AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% AZ Alkmaar, 27% draw, 23% Willem II — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AZ Alkmaar at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II
Line-ups
- 28J. De BusserG
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 3W. GoesD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 5M. ChávezD
- 8J. ClasieM
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 14C. StengsM
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 11R. DaalM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 34M. de WitD
- 12H. VerhulstG
- 7Weslley PatatiF
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 24A. OufkirF
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 31R. IchiharaD
- 19J. HornkampF
- 29W. HoedtD
- 26M. DelangheG
- 5H. ter AvestD
- 3F. StamD
- 23M. DekkerD
- 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
- 6C. TwigtM
- 52T. VilhenaM
- 22Per van LoonM
- 19Uriel van AalstM
- 7J. SloryM
- 9D. HaenF
- 21W. van der SteenG
- 31K. de LeeuwG
- 28T. VerheydtF
- 17O. MartinF
- 14Jens MathijsenD
- 83M. LemmensD
- 50E. GürbüzF
- 15A. Et-TaïbiD
- 2A. CiranniD
Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II
AZ Alkmaar
- W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
- W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Fortuna Sittard22 August 2026
- W4-1away to Utrecht15 August 2026
Willem II
- L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
- L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
- L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 16 |
| 17 | Willem II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II
- 11 September 2026AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 2 February 2025Willem II 0–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 10 November 2024AZ Alkmaar 1–2 Willem IIEredivisie
- 20 March 2022Willem II 2–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 18 December 2021AZ Alkmaar 4–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 3 April 2021Willem II 0–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and Willem II
AZ Alkmaar
- R. Daal4 goals
Willem II
- D. Haen3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.