11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Eredivisie prediction & result

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Full time1 – 1

Final score: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% AZ Alkmaar, 27% draw, 23% Willem II — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AZ Alkmaar at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AZ Alkmaar5%Draw92%Willem II3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
Tonny Vilhena
⚽Jordy Clasieassist: Mexx Meerdink
32'
🔁Calvin Stengsout: Weslley Pinto Batista
64'
🔁Jordy Clasieout: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
64'
70'
🔁Tonny Vilhenaout: kasper boogaard
70'
🔁Per van Loonout: Alessandro Ciranni
🔁Mexx Meerdinkout: Jizz Hornkamp
78'
81'
⚽Devin Haenassist: Uriël van Aalst
🔁Dave Kwakmanout: Bendegúz Kovács
87'
🔁Ro Zangelo Daalout: Ayoub Oufkir
87'
88'
🔁Jaden Sloryout: Thomas Verheydt
90+3'
🔁Maxim Dekkerout: Mats Lemmens

Match stats — AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II

67%Possession33%
22Shots8
5On target2
11Corners2

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 4L. SchoutenD
  • 5M. ChávezD
  • 8J. ClasieM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 14C. StengsM
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 11R. DaalM
  • 9M. MeerdinkF
Substitutes
  • 34M. de WitD
  • 12H. VerhulstG
  • 7Weslley PatatiF
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 24A. OufkirF
  • 2S. MaikumaD
  • 31R. IchiharaD
  • 19J. HornkampF
  • 29W. HoedtD
Coach: L. Echteld
Willem II 4-2-3-1
  • 26M. DelangheG
  • 5H. ter AvestD
  • 3F. StamD
  • 23M. DekkerD
  • 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
  • 6C. TwigtM
  • 52T. VilhenaM
  • 22Per van LoonM
  • 19Uriel van AalstM
  • 7J. SloryM
  • 9D. HaenF
Substitutes
  • 21W. van der SteenG
  • 31K. de LeeuwG
  • 28T. VerheydtF
  • 17O. MartinF
  • 14Jens MathijsenD
  • 83M. LemmensD
  • 50E. GürbüzF
  • 15A. Et-TaïbiD
  • 2A. CiranniD
Coach: J. Stegeman

Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
  • W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Fortuna Sittard22 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Utrecht15 August 2026
  • W2-0ADO Den Haag8 August 2026

Willem II

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
  • D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
  • L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
  • L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026

What these results say

  • AZ Alkmaar won every one of these 5 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Willem II did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Willem II conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Willem II had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5AZ Alkmaar106222012+820
18Willem II100281032-222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II

  • 2 February 2025Willem II 0–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 10 November 2024AZ Alkmaar 1–2 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 20 March 2022Willem II 2–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 18 December 2021AZ Alkmaar 4–1 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 3 April 2021Willem II 0–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie

The full AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II record →

Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and Willem II

AZ Alkmaar

GoalsAssists

  • R. Daal50

Willem II

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AZ Alkmaar and Willem II drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AZ Alkmaar at 50% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jordy Clasie 32' for AZ Alkmaar, Devin Haen 81' for Willem II.

How the call on AZ Alkmaar v Willem II has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is AZ Alkmaar's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. AZ Alkmaar win50%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Willem II win23%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.