Dunav Ruse
vs
Slavia Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 39% Dunav Ruse, 27% draw, 34% Slavia Sofia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Dunav Ruse 1.37, Slavia Sofia 1.28.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dunav Ruse
- L1-3away to Cherno More Varna21 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv16 August 2026
- L0-2Arda Kardzhali8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA Sofia2 August 2026
- L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
Slavia Sofia
- D1-1away to Ludogorets22 August 2026
- W3-0away to Botev Vratsa10 August 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Arda Kardzhali24 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Dunav Ruse carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.5 for Slavia Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dunav Ruse L-L-L-W-L; Slavia Sofia D-L-D-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Dunav Ruse and 1.28 for Slavia Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunav Ruse rate 0.71 in attack and 2.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Sofia rate 0.43 and 1.02.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Slavia Sofia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunav Ruse the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Dunav Ruse against 1.28 for Slavia Sofia. Dunav Ruse's attack/defence rating is 0.71/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.02 for Slavia Sofia.