CF Pachuca
vs
Cruz Azul
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: CF Pachuca 2–1 Cruz Azul
The model makes it 44% CF Pachuca, 26% draw, 30% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: CF Pachuca 1.75, Cruz Azul 1.35.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- CF Pachuca are 11th on 13 points from 11 games; Cruz Azul are 7th on 17 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- CF Pachuca are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Necaxa.
- Cruz Azul are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Pumas UNAM.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Cruz Azul 1–2 CF Pachuca.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CF Pachuca at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
CF Pachuca
- D3-3Necaxa11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Santos Laguna27 September 2026
- D2-2Club Tijuana21 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
Cruz Azul
- D3-3away to Pumas UNAM12 October 2026
- D3-3Toluca26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Monterrey20 September 2026
- W4-3Club America13 September 2026
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
What these results say
- CF Pachuca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
CF Pachuca
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
Cruz Azul
Chance to finish in the top four · 20% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
- 5 April 2026Cruz Azul 1–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 13 September 2025CF Pachuca 0–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 9 February 2025Cruz Azul 2–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 29 September 2024CF Pachuca 2–4 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 14 January 2024Cruz Azul 0–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 24 August 2023CF Pachuca 1–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón120
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- N. Ibáñez42
- G. Fernández41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CF Pachuca carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.69 for Cruz Azul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for CF Pachuca and 1.35 for Cruz Azul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CF Pachuca rate 0.77 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cruz Azul rate 0.94 and 1.31.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruz Azul, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CF Pachuca a 0% chance of the title and Cruz Azul 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CF Pachuca the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for CF Pachuca against 1.35 for Cruz Azul. CF Pachuca's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.31 for Cruz Azul.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CF Pachuca at home · Cruz Azul away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CF PachucaCruz Azul
CF Pachuca are 11th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Cruz Azul are 7th after 11 (between 1st and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: CF Pachuca 11, Cruz Azul 11.
CF Pachuca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Cruz Azul have let in 4 there.
Cruz Azul score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); CF Pachuca have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
CF Pachuca
- at Club America25 Oct · Liga MXwin 26%
- vs Tigres UANL31 Oct · Liga MXwin 44%
- at Atlas7 Nov · Liga MXwin 35%
- vs Toluca21 Nov · Liga MXwin 40%
Cruz Azul
- at Club Queretaro26 Oct · Liga MXwin 29%
- vs Leon2 Nov · Liga MXwin 56%
- at Tigres UANL7 Nov · Liga MXwin 31%
- at Guadalajara Chivas22 Nov · Liga MXwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.