Al-Duhail SC
vs
Lusail City
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al-Duhail SC 1–0 Lusail City
The model makes it 43% Al-Duhail SC, 28% draw, 29% Lusail City — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al-Duhail SC 1.46, Lusail City 1.08.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Al-Duhail SC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Duhail SC are 3rd on 9 points from 5 games; Lusail City are 8th on 5 points from 5 games — Stars League.
- Al-Duhail SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 4-0 win away to Al Shamal.
- Lusail City have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Al Shahaniya.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Duhail SC at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City
Al-Duhail SC
- W4-0away to Al Shamal8 October 2026
- D1-1Al Shahaniya12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Rayyan SC5 September 2026
- D1-1Al-Arabi SC29 August 2026
- W2-0Al-Sailiya22 August 2026
Lusail City
- L0-1away to Al Shahaniya10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Gharafa11 September 2026
- W4-0Al Wakrah4 September 2026
- D3-3away to Al Ahli Doha28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Rayyan SC20 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Duhail SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Duhail SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Duhail SC had two goals or fewer.
- Lusail City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 8 | Lusail City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Duhail SC and Lusail City
Al-Duhail SC
No player in Stars League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Lusail City
GoalsAssists
- F. Zavoshi30
- Rodrigo30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Duhail SC carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.46 for Lusail City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Al-Duhail SC and 1.08 for Lusail City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Duhail SC rate 0.65 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lusail City rate 0.56 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Duhail SC the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Duhail SC against 1.08 for Lusail City. Al-Duhail SC's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.25 for Lusail City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Duhail SC at home · Lusail City away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al-Duhail SC 5, Lusail City 5.
Al-Duhail SC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Lusail City have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Duhail SC
- vs Al Wakrah6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 53%
- at Al-Gharafa20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 54%
- vs Qatar SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 56%
- at Al Ahli Doha3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 46%
Lusail City
- at Al-Sailiya6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 56%
- vs Qatar SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 48%
- at Al Sadd27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 29%
- vs Al-Arabi SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.