Club America
vs
CF Pachuca
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Club America 2–1 CF Pachuca
The model makes it 48% Club America, 26% draw, 26% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Club America 1.78, CF Pachuca 1.15.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Club America are top on 21 points from 10 games; CF Pachuca are 11th on 13 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- Club America are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Monterrey.
- CF Pachuca are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Necaxa.
- Last 6 meetings: Club America 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 January 2026, ended CF Pachuca 0–0 Club America.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club America vs CF Pachuca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club America at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club America vs CF Pachuca
Club America
- D1-1Monterrey11 October 2026
- W4-2away to Necaxa28 September 2026
- D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
- W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
CF Pachuca
- D3-3Necaxa11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Santos Laguna27 September 2026
- D2-2Club Tijuana21 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
What these results say
- Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club America conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Club America.
- CF Pachuca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 21 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Club America
Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 35% today
CF Pachuca
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Club America
CF Pachuca and Club America have met 6 times in the records we hold, Club America has won 3 of them to CF Pachuca's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at CF Pachuca on 19 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 8 goals, an average of 1.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 19 Jan 2026
Liga MXCF Pachuca 0–0 Club America - 31 Aug 2025
Liga MXClub America 2–0 CF Pachuca - 11 May 2025
Liga MXClub America 2–0 CF Pachuca - 8 May 2025
Liga MXCF Pachuca 0–0 Club America - 5 Apr 2025
Liga MXCF Pachuca 1–0 Club America - 7 Nov 2024
Liga MXClub America 2–1 CF Pachuca
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 0.77 | 1.12 |
| Club America | 0.92 | 1.17 |
Leading scorers: Club America and CF Pachuca
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín62
- M. Borja40
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón120
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Club America carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.67 for CF Pachuca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Club America and 1.15 for CF Pachuca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club America rate 0.92 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Pachuca rate 0.77 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club America a 34.9% chance of the title and CF Pachuca 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club America the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Club America against 1.15 for CF Pachuca. Club America's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.12 for CF Pachuca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club America at home · CF Pachuca away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Club AmericaCF Pachuca
Club America are 1st after 10 Liga MX matches (between 1st and 8th so far); CF Pachuca are 11th after 11 (between 1st and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Club America 10, CF Pachuca 11.
CF Pachuca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Club America have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Club America
- vs Club Tijuana29 Oct · Liga MXwin 52%
- vs Toluca1 Nov · Liga MXwin 45%
- at Pumas UNAM8 Nov · Liga MXwin 35%
CF Pachuca
- vs Tigres UANL31 Oct · Liga MXwin 44%
- at Atlas7 Nov · Liga MXwin 35%
- vs Toluca21 Nov · Liga MXwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.