Atlante FC
vs
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atlante FC 2–1 Pumas UNAM
The model makes it 37% Atlante FC, 29% draw, 34% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atlante FC 1.54, Pumas UNAM 1.42.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Atlante FC and Pumas UNAM are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Atlante FC are 14th on 11 points from 10 games; Pumas UNAM are 12th on 12 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- Atlante FC have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Monterrey.
- Pumas UNAM are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Atletico San Luis.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atlante FC vs Pumas UNAM
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlante FC at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atlante FC vs Pumas UNAM
Atlante FC
- W4-2Monterrey26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla19 September 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
- D1-1Leon29 August 2026
Pumas UNAM
- L2-3Atletico San Luis27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
What these results say
- Atlante FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Atlante FC and Pumas UNAM
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Pumas UNAM
- Juninho5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlante FC carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.63 for Pumas UNAM. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Atlante FC and 1.42 for Pumas UNAM. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlante FC rate 0.70 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pumas UNAM rate 0.82 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pumas UNAM, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atlante FC a 0% chance of the title and Pumas UNAM 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlante FC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Atlante FC against 1.42 for Pumas UNAM. Atlante FC's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.27 for Pumas UNAM.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atlante FC at home · Pumas UNAM away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Atlante FC 10, Pumas UNAM 10.
Atlante FC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Pumas UNAM have let in 5 there.
Pumas UNAM score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Atlante FC have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Atlante FC
- at FC Juarez21 Oct · Liga MXwin 37%
- vs Atletico San Luis24 Oct · Liga MXwin 42%
- at Guadalajara Chivas1 Nov · Liga MXwin 21%
- vs Santos Laguna7 Nov · Liga MXwin 45%
Pumas UNAM
- at Santos Laguna22 Oct · Liga MXwin 37%
- vs Tigres UANL25 Oct · Liga MXwin 41%
- at Puebla31 Oct · Liga MXwin 37%
- vs Club America8 Nov · Liga MXwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.