Al-Gharafa
vs
Al Ahli Doha
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al-Gharafa 1–2 Al Ahli Doha
The model makes it 30% Al-Gharafa, 24% draw, 46% Al Ahli Doha — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al-Gharafa 1.60, Al Ahli Doha 2.07.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Al Ahli Doha: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Gharafa are 10th on 4 points from 5 games; Al Ahli Doha are 6th on 7 points from 5 games — Stars League.
- Al-Gharafa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Al Wakrah.
- Al Ahli Doha have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Al-Sailiya.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 March 2026, ended Al-Gharafa 1–4 Al Ahli Doha.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ahli Doha at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha
Al-Gharafa
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah8 October 2026
- D0-0Lusail City11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Al Sadd5 September 2026
- L1-3Al Shamal27 August 2026
- W2-1Al Shahaniya21 August 2026
Al Ahli Doha
- W5-0Al-Sailiya10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Rayyan SC11 September 2026
- W1-0Qatar SC3 September 2026
- D3-3Lusail City28 August 2026
- L1-3away to Al Sadd22 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Gharafa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Gharafa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Gharafa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Ahli Doha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Ahli Doha had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 6 | Al Ahli Doha | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha
- 18 March 2026Al-Gharafa 1–4 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 25 October 2025Al Ahli Doha 1–3 Al-GharafaStars League
- 22 January 2025Al-Gharafa 2–0 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 18 August 2024Al Ahli Doha 1–0 Al-GharafaStars League
- 8 May 2024Al-Gharafa 4–3 Al Ahli DohaEmir Cup
- 24 February 2024Al-Gharafa 1–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli Doha
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- F. Magri20
- Y. Brahimi20
Al Ahli Doha
GoalsAssists
- J. Draxler31
- N. Sliti21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Gharafa carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.4 for Al Ahli Doha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Al-Gharafa and 2.07 for Al Ahli Doha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Gharafa rate 0.54 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Ahli Doha rate 0.67 and 1.65.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ahli Doha the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Al-Gharafa against 2.07 for Al Ahli Doha. Al-Gharafa's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.65 for Al Ahli Doha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Gharafa at home · Al Ahli Doha away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al-Gharafa 5, Al Ahli Doha 5.
Al-Gharafa score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al Ahli Doha have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Gharafa
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 6%
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 13%
- at Qatar SC6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Duhail SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 22%
Al Ahli Doha
- vs Al Shahaniya6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 45%
- at Al-Arabi SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 35%
- vs Al Shamal27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 42%
- vs Al-Duhail SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.