Club Tijuana
vs
Puebla
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Club Tijuana 1–0 Puebla
The model makes it 48% Club Tijuana, 28% draw, 24% Puebla — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Club Tijuana 1.76, Puebla 0.93.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Club Tijuana are 8th on 14 points from 9 games; Puebla are 9th on 14 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- Club Tijuana are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Atlas.
- Puebla are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Tigres UANL.
- Last 6 meetings: Puebla 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Club Tijuana 0–0 Puebla.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Club Tijuana vs Puebla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Tijuana at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club Tijuana vs Puebla
Club Tijuana
- L2-3Atlas26 September 2026
- D2-2away to CF Pachuca21 September 2026
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas22 August 2026
Puebla
- L0-1away to Tigres UANL27 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC19 September 2026
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
What these results say
- Club Tijuana failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Puebla had two goals or fewer.
- Puebla failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Puebla
- 7 February 2026Club Tijuana 0–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 18 October 2025Puebla 4–3 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 22 February 2025Puebla 2–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 11 November 2024Club Tijuana 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 20 April 2024Club Tijuana 3–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 2 September 2023Puebla 3–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Puebla
Club Tijuana
- G. Mora5 goals1 assist
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Club Tijuana carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.45 for Puebla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Club Tijuana and 0.93 for Puebla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Tijuana rate 0.77 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puebla rate 0.58 and 1.32.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Tijuana a 1.5% chance of the title and Puebla 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Tijuana the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Club Tijuana against 0.93 for Puebla. Club Tijuana's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.32 for Puebla.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club Tijuana at home · Puebla away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Club Tijuana 9, Puebla 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Club Tijuana
- at Toluca22 Oct · Liga MXwin 24%
- vs Santos Laguna26 Oct · Liga MXwin 49%
- at Club America29 Oct · Liga MXwin 25%
- at Monterrey1 Nov · Liga MXwin 32%
Puebla
- vs Monterrey22 Oct · Liga MXwin 37%
- at Atlas25 Oct · Liga MXwin 27%
- vs Pumas UNAM31 Oct · Liga MXwin 34%
- at Club Queretaro9 Nov · Liga MXwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.