Santos Laguna
vs
Club Queretaro
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Santos Laguna 0–1 Club Queretaro
The model makes it 32% Santos Laguna, 31% draw, 37% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Santos Laguna 1.13, Club Queretaro 1.29.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Santos Laguna are 16th on 10 points from 10 games; Club Queretaro are 4th on 17 points from 9 games — Liga MX.
- Santos Laguna are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-0 win at home to CF Pachuca.
- Club Queretaro are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-0 win away to Guadalajara Chivas.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Queretaro 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Club Queretaro 2–2 Santos Laguna.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Queretaro at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro
Santos Laguna
- W1-0CF Pachuca27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Toluca21 September 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL30 August 2026
Club Queretaro
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas26 September 2026
- D1-1Leon21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Club Tijuana12 September 2026
- W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
- L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
What these results say
- Club Queretaro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro
- 28 February 2026Club Queretaro 2–2 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 26 October 2025Santos Laguna 3–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 13 April 2025Santos Laguna 1–2 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 9 November 2024Club Queretaro 3–2 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 2 March 2024Club Queretaro 0–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 3 July 2023Santos Laguna 0–2 Club QueretaroLiga MX
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and Club Queretaro
Santos Laguna
- E. Bullaude3 goals1 assist
Club Queretaro
- S. Homenchenko4 goals2 assists
- A. Ávila4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santos Laguna carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.68 for Club Queretaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Santos Laguna and 1.29 for Club Queretaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santos Laguna rate 0.64 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Queretaro rate 0.70 and 1.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santos Laguna a 0% chance of the title and Club Queretaro 15.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Queretaro the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Santos Laguna against 1.29 for Club Queretaro. Santos Laguna's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.02 for Club Queretaro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Santos Laguna at home · Club Queretaro away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Santos Laguna 10, Club Queretaro 9.
Club Queretaro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Santos Laguna have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Santos Laguna
- vs Pumas UNAM22 Oct · Liga MXwin 34%
- at Club Tijuana26 Oct · Liga MXwin 24%
- vs Necaxa1 Nov · Liga MXwin 43%
- at Atlante FC7 Nov · Liga MXwin 27%
Club Queretaro
- at Atletico San Luis21 Oct · Liga MXwin 35%
- vs Cruz Azul26 Oct · Liga MXwin 40%
- at FC Juarez31 Oct · Liga MXwin 42%
- vs Puebla9 Nov · Liga MXwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.