Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Tigres UANL
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Tigres UANL
The model makes it 46% Guadalajara Chivas, 29% draw, 25% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Guadalajara Chivas 1.72, Tigres UANL 0.97.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd on 18 points from 10 games; Tigres UANL are 15th on 10 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- Guadalajara Chivas have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Club Queretaro.
- Tigres UANL have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Puebla.
- Last 6 meetings: Tigres UANL 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Tigres UANL.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
Guadalajara Chivas
- L0-2Club Queretaro26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Club America20 September 2026
- W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
Tigres UANL
- W1-0Puebla27 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Juarez19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Monterrey13 September 2026
- D1-1Necaxa6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Santos Laguna30 August 2026
What these results say
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.
- Tigres UANL failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
- 10 May 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 3 May 2026Tigres UANL 3–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 11 April 2026Tigres UANL 4–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 18 September 2025Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 26 January 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 25 August 2024Tigres UANL 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Tigres UANL
- J. Brunetta4 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Guadalajara Chivas carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.64 for Tigres UANL. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.97 for Tigres UANL. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guadalajara Chivas rate 0.91 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tigres UANL rate 0.71 and 1.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guadalajara Chivas a 15% chance of the title and Tigres UANL 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas against 0.97 for Tigres UANL. Guadalajara Chivas's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.09 for Tigres UANL.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Guadalajara Chivas at home · Tigres UANL away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Guadalajara Chivas 10, Tigres UANL 10.
Tigres UANL score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Guadalajara Chivas have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Guadalajara Chivas
- vs Necaxa21 Oct · Liga MXwin 58%
- at Monterrey25 Oct · Liga MXwin 39%
- vs Atlante FC1 Nov · Liga MXwin 53%
- at Leon9 Nov · Liga MXwin 39%
Tigres UANL
- vs Leon21 Oct · Liga MXwin 45%
- at Pumas UNAM25 Oct · Liga MXwin 30%
- at CF Pachuca31 Oct · Liga MXwin 28%
- vs Cruz Azul7 Nov · Liga MXwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.