Castellón
vs
Eibar
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Castellón 1–0 Eibar
The model makes it 45% Castellón, 28% draw, 27% Eibar — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Castellón 1.54, Eibar 1.04.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Castellón's rating is built from 54 Segunda División matches and Eibar's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,046 matches.
Key facts
- Castellón are 2nd on 23 points from 10 games; Eibar are 3rd on 22 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Castellón have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Las Palmas.
- Eibar have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Mallorca.
- Last 4 meetings: Castellón 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Castellón 2–1 Eibar.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Castellón vs Eibar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Castellón at 45% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Castellón vs Eibar
Castellón
Segunda División
- W3-0away to Las Palmas17 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026
- D1-1AD Ceuta FC4 October 2026
- W2-0away to Leganes28 September 2026
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
Eibar
Segunda División
- D1-1Mallorca17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Oviedo12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026
- W3-2Las Palmas27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Eldense19 September 2026
What these results say
- Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eibar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eibar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Eibar.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 23 |
| 3 | Eibar | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Castellón vs Eibar
- 31 May 2026Castellón 2–1 EibarSegunda División
- 12 October 2025Eibar 0–0 CastellónSegunda División
- 15 February 2025Castellón 2–0 EibarSegunda División
- 17 August 2024Eibar 1–0 CastellónSegunda División
Leading scorers: Castellón and Eibar
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero42
- Ousmane Camara41
- Pablo Santiago32
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
- Jon Guruzeta32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Castellón carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.68 for Eibar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Castellón and 1.04 for Eibar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Castellón rate 0.86 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eibar rate 0.83 and 1.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Castellón a 29% chance of the title and Eibar 12.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Castellón against 1.04 for Eibar. Castellón's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.16 for Eibar.
How the model reaches 45% for Castellón to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Castellón to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Castellón's ratings take away 6 points and Eibar's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Castellón's ratings37%−6
- Eibar's ratings45%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Castellón at home · Eibar away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CastellónEibar
Castellón are 2nd after 10 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Eibar are 3rd after 10 (between 1st and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Castellón 10, Eibar 10.
Castellón score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Eibar have let in 1 there.
Eibar score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Castellón have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Castellón
- at Valladolid14 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
- vs Eldense22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 54%
- at Mallorca29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
Eibar
- vs Cadiz15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 59%
- at Girona22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Burgos29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.