Granada CF
vs
Valladolid
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Granada CF 2–1 Valladolid
The model makes it 44% Granada CF, 27% draw, 29% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Granada CF 1.62, Valladolid 1.19.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Granada CF are 10th on 14 points from 9 games; Valladolid are 11th on 12 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Granada CF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Burgos.
- Valladolid are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Albacete.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Granada CF 5–1 Valladolid.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Granada CF vs Valladolid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Granada CF at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Granada CF vs Valladolid
Granada CF
- W1-0away to Burgos12 October 2026
- W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026
- L2-3FC Andorra26 September 2026
- L2-3away to Leganes20 September 2026
- D1-1Albacete12 September 2026
Valladolid
- W5-0Albacete12 October 2026
- D2-2away to Las Palmas4 October 2026
- W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
- D1-1away to AD Ceuta FC20 September 2026
- L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026
What these results say
- Granada CF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Granada CF.
- Valladolid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Valladolid had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Granada CF
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
Valladolid
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Granada CF vs Valladolid
- 14 February 2026Granada CF 5–1 ValladolidSegunda División
- 3 November 2025Valladolid 2–1 Granada CFSegunda División
- 11 April 2021Valladolid 1–2 Granada CFLa Liga
- 22 November 2020Granada CF 1–3 ValladolidLa Liga
- 28 August 2020Granada CF 0–3 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
- 15 February 2020Granada CF 2–1 ValladolidLa Liga
Leading scorers: Granada CF and Valladolid
Granada CF
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio31
- Juanmi Latasa30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Granada CF carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.47 for Valladolid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Granada CF and 1.19 for Valladolid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Granada CF rate 0.74 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Valladolid rate 0.66 and 1.42.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Granada CF a 1.2% chance of the title and Valladolid 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Granada CF the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Granada CF against 1.19 for Valladolid. Granada CF's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.42 for Valladolid.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Granada CF at home · Valladolid away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Granada CFValladolid
Granada CF are 9th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Valladolid are 9th after 9 (between 9th and 21st). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Granada CF 9, Valladolid 9.
Granada CF score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Valladolid have let in 1 there.
Valladolid score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Granada CF have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Granada CF
- at Eldense1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- vs Tenerife8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
- vs Las Palmas15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Sabadell22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
Valladolid
- vs Leganes1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
- at Sporting Gijon8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Castellón15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- at Celta de Vigo II22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.