Cordoba
vs
Eibar
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Cordoba 1–2 Eibar
The model makes it 29% Cordoba, 25% draw, 46% Eibar — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Cordoba 1.37, Eibar 1.87.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Eibar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cordoba are 18th on 9 points from 9 games; Eibar are 2nd on 21 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Cordoba have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Eldense.
- Eibar have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Oviedo.
- Last 6 meetings: Eibar 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Eibar 2–0 Cordoba.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cordoba vs Eibar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eibar at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cordoba vs Eibar
Cordoba
- L1-2away to Eldense10 October 2026
- W3-2Tenerife5 October 2026
- L1-3away to Valladolid27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Albacete18 September 2026
- L0-2Almeria12 September 2026
Eibar
- L1-3away to Oviedo12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026
- W3-2Las Palmas27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Eldense19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Celta de Vigo II14 September 2026
What these results say
- Cordoba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cordoba had three goals or more.
- Eibar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Eibar had three goals or more.
- Eibar won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Cordoba | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 9 |
| 2 | Eibar | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cordoba
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
Eibar
Chance to finish in the top four · 64% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cordoba vs Eibar
- 24 May 2026Eibar 2–0 CordobaSegunda División
- 13 December 2025Cordoba 0–0 EibarSegunda División
- 25 May 2025Eibar 4–1 CordobaSegunda División
- 17 December 2024Cordoba 2–1 EibarSegunda División
- 23 May 2015Eibar 3–0 CordobaLa Liga
- 16 January 2015Cordoba 1–1 EibarLa Liga
Leading scorers: Cordoba and Eibar
Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- Percan31
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Jon Guruzeta32
- Iván Gil31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.69 for Eibar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Cordoba and 1.87 for Eibar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cordoba rate 0.77 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eibar rate 0.84 and 1.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cordoba a 0% chance of the title and Eibar 22.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eibar the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cordoba against 1.87 for Eibar. Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.15 for Eibar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cordoba at home · Eibar away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CordobaEibar
Cordoba are 16th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 8th and 19th so far); Eibar are 2nd after 9 (between 1st and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Cordoba 9, Eibar 9.
Cordoba score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Eibar have let in 3 there.
Eibar score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Cordoba have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cordoba
- at Celta de Vigo II1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs AD Ceuta FC8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- at Mallorca15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 15%
- vs Oviedo22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
Eibar
- vs Almeria1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Castellón8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- vs Cadiz15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 59%
- at Girona22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.