Hamburger SV
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Hamburger SV 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
The model makes it 43% Hamburger SV, 26% draw, 31% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hamburger SV 1.69, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.34.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Hamburger SV's rating is built from 40 Bundesliga matches and Borussia Mönchengladbach's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.
Key facts
- Hamburger SV are 9th on 9 points from 6 games; Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom on 0 points from 6 games — Bundesliga.
- Hamburger SV are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to VfB Stuttgart.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to 1899 Hoffenheim.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Hamburger SV 0–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hamburger SV at 43% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
- W1-0VfB Stuttgart17 October 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
- W2-11. FC Köln19 September 2026
- L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga
- L1-21899 Hoffenheim18 October 2026
- L1-2away to 1. FC Köln11 October 2026
- L3-4FSV Mainz 0519 September 2026
- L0-5away to SC Freiburg12 September 2026
- L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
What these results say
- Hamburger SV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hamburger SV had three goals or more.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Borussia Mönchengladbach had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hamburger SV | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 17 January 2026Hamburger SV 0–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 24 August 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 12 May 2018Hamburger SV 2–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 15 December 2017Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 12 March 2017Hamburger SV 2–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 1 March 2017Hamburger SV 1–2 Borussia MönchengladbachDFB Pokal
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hamburger SV carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.64 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Hamburger SV and 1.34 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hamburger SV rate 0.76 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borussia Mönchengladbach rate 0.80 and 1.21.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hamburger SV the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Hamburger SV against 1.34 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Hamburger SV's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.21 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How the model reaches 43% for Hamburger SV to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Hamburger SV to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Hamburger SV's ratings take away 10 points and Borussia Mönchengladbach's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage42%+4
- Hamburger SV's ratings32%−10
- Borussia Mönchengladbach's ratings43%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hamburger SV at home · Borussia Mönchengladbach away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Hamburger SVBorussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV are 9th after 6 Bundesliga matches (between 6th and 18th so far); Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th after 6 (between 17th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Hamburger SV 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.
Hamburger SV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Borussia Mönchengladbach have let in 7 there.
Borussia Mönchengladbach score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Hamburger SV have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Hamburger SV
- at Werder Bremen22 Nov · Bundesligawin 28%
- vs Bayern München28 Nov · Bundesligawin 11%
- at Union Berlin5 Dec · Bundesligawin 33%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- vs Borussia Dortmund21 Nov · Bundesligawin 15%
- at Werder Bremen27 Nov · Bundesligawin 27%
- at Bayer Leverkusen5 Dec · Bundesligawin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.