Girona
vs
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Girona 2–1 Celta de Vigo II
The model makes it 56% Girona, 24% draw, 20% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Girona 2.07, Celta de Vigo II 1.03.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Girona: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Girona are 7th on 15 points from 9 games; Celta de Vigo II are 13th on 11 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Girona are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Tenerife.
- Celta de Vigo II have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Real Sociedad II.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Girona vs Celta de Vigo II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Girona at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Girona vs Celta de Vigo II
Girona
- D1-1away to Tenerife12 October 2026
- D0-0Mallorca4 October 2026
- W2-0Albacete25 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cadiz19 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón12 September 2026
Celta de Vigo II
- W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sporting Gijon4 October 2026
- D1-1Sabadell26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Almeria20 September 2026
- L0-4Eibar14 September 2026
What these results say
- Girona scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Girona
Chance to finish in the top four · 44% today
Celta de Vigo II
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Girona and Celta de Vigo II
Girona
GoalsAssists
- Y. Asprilla50
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Girona carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.51 for Celta de Vigo II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Girona and 1.03 for Celta de Vigo II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Girona rate 0.82 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta de Vigo II rate 0.82 and 1.64.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Girona a 9% chance of the title and Celta de Vigo II 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Girona against 1.03 for Celta de Vigo II. Girona's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.64 for Celta de Vigo II.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Girona at home · Celta de Vigo II away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GironaCelta de Vigo II
Girona are 7th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 2nd and 16th so far); Celta de Vigo II are 11th after 9 (between 3rd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Girona 9, Celta de Vigo II 9.
Girona score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Celta de Vigo II have let in 1 there.
Celta de Vigo II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Girona have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Girona
- at Real Sociedad II1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- vs Almeria8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Oviedo15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Eibar22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
Celta de Vigo II
- vs Cordoba1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 52%
- at Burgos8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- at Albacete15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- vs Valladolid22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.