Wolfsberger AC
vs
Sturm Graz
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Wolfsberger AC 0–1 Sturm Graz
The model makes it 21% Wolfsberger AC, 28% draw, 51% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 4.76, 3.57 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Wolfsberger AC 0.85, Sturm Graz 1.59.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Sturm Graz are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Wolfsberger AC are bottom on 5 points from 8 games; Sturm Graz are 5th on 14 points from 8 games — Bundesliga.
- Wolfsberger AC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to SCR Altach.
- Sturm Graz have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Austria Vienna.
- Last 6 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Wolfsberger AC 2–2 Sturm Graz.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sturm Graz at 51% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz
Wolfsberger AC
- L0-3away to SCR Altach11 October 2026
- L1-4away to Ried20 September 2026
- L0-3Rapid Vienna12 September 2026
- L1-3Lask Linz1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Grazer AK29 August 2026
Sturm Graz
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg20 September 2026
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
What these results say
- Wolfsberger AC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Wolfsberger AC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wolfsberger AC had three goals or more.
- Sturm Graz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 5 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz
- 1 March 2026Wolfsberger AC 2–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 26 October 2025Sturm Graz 1–3 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 24 May 2025Sturm Graz 1–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 30 March 2025Wolfsberger AC 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 15 February 2025Wolfsberger AC 3–0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 22 September 2024Sturm Graz 0–3 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
Leading scorers: Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz
Wolfsberger AC
GoalsAssists
- G. Vrioni40
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Wolfsberger AC carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.65 for Sturm Graz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.59 for Sturm Graz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wolfsberger AC rate 0.49 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sturm Graz rate 0.71 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wolfsberger AC a 0% chance of the title and Sturm Graz 2.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC against 1.59 for Sturm Graz. Wolfsberger AC's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.07 for Sturm Graz.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wolfsberger AC at home · Sturm Graz away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Wolfsberger ACSturm Graz
Wolfsberger AC are 12th after 8 Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 12th so far); Sturm Graz are 4th after 8 (between 1st and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Wolfsberger AC 8, Sturm Graz 8.
Sturm Graz score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Wolfsberger AC have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Wolfsberger AC
- at Rapid Vienna6 Nov · Bundesligawin 11%
- vs Ried22 Nov · Bundesligawin 33%
- at Austria Vienna28 Nov · Bundesligawin 25%
Sturm Graz
- vs Celje5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg8 Nov · Bundesligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.