Velez Sarsfield
vs
Belgrano Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Belgrano Cordoba
The model makes it 44% Velez Sarsfield, 30% draw, 26% Belgrano Cordoba — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Velez Sarsfield 1.30, Belgrano Cordoba 0.88.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Velez Sarsfield's rating is built from 66 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Belgrano Cordoba's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,383 matches.
Key facts
- Velez Sarsfield are 3rd in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A on 28 points from 16 games; Belgrano Cordoba are 6th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B on 23 points from 16 games.
- Velez Sarsfield have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Union Santa Fe.
- Belgrano Cordoba are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Gimnasia La Plata.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 October 2024, ended Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Belgrano Cordoba.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Velez Sarsfield vs Belgrano Cordoba
Has the model earned this number?
Velez Sarsfield at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Belgrano Cordoba
Velez Sarsfield
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L0-2away to Union Santa Fe6 November 2026
- D2-2San Lorenzo31 October 2026
- W5-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago26 October 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Lanus12 October 2026
Belgrano Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L1-2away to Gimnasia La Plata5 November 2026
- D2-2Barracas Central1 November 2026
- L0-1away to Aldosivi25 October 2026
- L0-3River Plate18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Racing Club11 October 2026
What these results say
- Belgrano Cordoba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belgrano Cordoba conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 | Belgrano Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Belgrano Cordoba
- 27 October 2024Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 January 2024Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Belgrano CordobaFriendlies Clubs
- 3 June 2023Belgrano Cordoba 2–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 October 2018Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 February 2018Belgrano Cordoba 2–2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 May 2017Velez Sarsfield 1–2 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Belgrano Cordoba
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez132
Belgrano Cordoba
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Velez Sarsfield the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Velez Sarsfield against 0.88 for Belgrano Cordoba. Velez Sarsfield's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.1 for Belgrano Cordoba.
How the model reaches 44% for Velez Sarsfield to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Velez Sarsfield to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Velez Sarsfield's ratings add 2 points and Belgrano Cordoba's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage41%+6
- Velez Sarsfield's ratings43%+2
- Belgrano Cordoba's ratings44%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Velez Sarsfield at home · Belgrano Cordoba away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Velez Sarsfield 33, Belgrano Cordoba 36.
Velez Sarsfield score most often in the 0–15 minute window (11 goals); Belgrano Cordoba have let in 4 there.
Belgrano Cordoba score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Velez Sarsfield have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.