Operario-PR
vs
Sport Recife
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Operario-PR 2–1 Sport Recife
The model makes it 41% Operario-PR, 25% draw, 34% Sport Recife — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Operario-PR 1.78, Sport Recife 1.57.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Operario-PR's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie B matches and Sport Recife's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Operario-PR are 10th on 48 points from 34 games; Sport Recife are 8th on 51 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Operario-PR have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to America Mineiro.
- Sport Recife have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Fortaleza EC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Sport Recife 2–2 Operario-PR.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Operario-PR vs Sport Recife
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Operario-PR at 41% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Operario-PR vs Sport Recife
Operario-PR
Serie B
- L0-1away to America Mineiro17 October 2026
- L0-2Goias11 October 2026
- L1-2Botafogo SP7 October 2026
- L0-3away to Juventude2 October 2026
- D2-2Ceara26 September 2026
Sport Recife
Serie B
- L0-2Fortaleza EC16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Goianiense11 October 2026
- W2-1São Bernardo6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Athletic Club MG1 October 2026
- L1-3away to Nautico Recife26 September 2026
What these results say
- Operario-PR did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Operario-PR conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Recife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Recife scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sport Recife.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Operario-PR | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 48 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Operario-PR vs Sport Recife
- 18 July 2026Sport Recife 2–2 Operario-PRSerie B
- 4 November 2024Operario-PR 2–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 17 October 2024Sport Recife 1–2 Operario-PRSerie B
- 28 October 2022Sport Recife 5–1 Operario-PRSerie B
- 14 July 2022Operario-PR 0–0 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 28 September 2019Sport Recife 3–1 Operario-PRSerie B
Leading scorers: Operario-PR and Sport Recife
Operario-PR
GoalsAssists
- Boschilia134
- Vinícius Diniz71
Sport Recife
GoalsAssists
- Perotti121
- Chrystian Barletta114
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Operario-PR carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.39 for Sport Recife. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Operario-PR and 1.57 for Sport Recife. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Operario-PR rate 0.65 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sport Recife rate 0.67 and 1.68.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sport Recife, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Operario-PR the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Operario-PR against 1.57 for Sport Recife. Operario-PR's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.68 for Sport Recife.
How the model reaches 41% for Operario-PR to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Operario-PR to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Operario-PR's ratings take away 26 points and Sport Recife's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Operario-PR's ratings18%−26
- Sport Recife's ratings41%+23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Operario-PR at home · Sport Recife away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Operario-PR 34, Sport Recife 34.
Operario-PR score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Sport Recife have let in 5 there.
Sport Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Operario-PR have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Operario-PR
- at Ponte Preta14 Nov · Serie Bwin 58%
Sport Recife
- vs Goias14 Nov · Serie Bwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.