Borussia Mönchengladbach
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–2 Borussia Dortmund
The model makes it 16% Borussia Mönchengladbach, 22% draw, 62% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 6.25, 4.55 and 1.61.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.88, Borussia Dortmund 2.24.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Borussia Dortmund are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Borussia Mönchengladbach's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and Borussia Dortmund's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom on 4 points from 9 games; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 21 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Hamburger SV.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to SV Elversberg.
- Last 6 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 Borussia Dortmund.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
Has the model earned this number?
Borussia Dortmund at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga
- L1-3away to Hamburger SV6 November 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0731 October 2026
- W3-2away to VfB Stuttgart23 October 2026
- L1-21899 Hoffenheim18 October 2026
- L1-2away to 1. FC Köln11 October 2026
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
- W2-1SV Elversberg7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Bayern München31 October 2026
- W1-0Eintracht Frankfurt24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Union Berlin17 October 2026
- D2-2Werder Bremen9 October 2026
What these results say
- Borussia Mönchengladbach failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 54% today
Borussia Dortmund
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 17% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
- 3 May 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 19 December 2025Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 20 April 2025Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 7 December 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 13 April 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 25 November 2023Borussia Dortmund 4–2 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
The full Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund record →
Leading scorers: Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Mönchengladbach
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- F. Nmecha40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 0% chance of the title and Borussia Dortmund 17.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 15% / 21% / 64% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 16% / 22% / 62%: the biggest move is Borussia Dortmund's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win16%▲ +1
- Draw22%▲ +1
- Borussia Dortmund win62%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 2.24 for Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.58 for Borussia Dortmund.
How the model reaches 62% for Borussia Dortmund to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Borussia Dortmund to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Borussia Mönchengladbach's ratings add 16 points and Borussia Dortmund's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Borussia Mönchengladbach's ratings48%+16
- Borussia Dortmund's ratings62%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Borussia Mönchengladbach at home · Borussia Dortmund away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmund
Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 17th and 18th so far); Borussia Dortmund are 2nd after 9 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Borussia Mönchengladbach 9, Borussia Dortmund 9.
Borussia Dortmund score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Borussia Mönchengladbach have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- at Werder Bremen27 Nov · Bundesligawin 24%
- at Bayer Leverkusen5 Dec · Bundesligawin 15%
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt12 Dec · Bundesligawin 32%
- at FC Schalke 0420 Dec · Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Bayern München9 Jan · Bundesligawin 11%
Borussia Dortmund
- at Arsenal24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 13%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen29 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
- at FC Schalke 046 Dec · Bundesligawin 55%
- vs Inter9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 41%
- vs FC Augsburg12 Dec · Bundesligawin 66%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.