Sport Boys
vs
UTC Cajamarca
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Sport Boys 1–0 UTC Cajamarca
The model makes it 54% Sport Boys, 27% draw, 19% UTC Cajamarca — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Sport Boys 1.69, UTC Cajamarca 0.80.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
Edge to Sport Boys: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Sport Boys's rating is built from 64 Primera División (Peru) matches and UTC Cajamarca's from 66, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sport Boys are 11th on 38 points from 29 games; UTC Cajamarca are bottom on 15 points from 30 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Sport Boys are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Juan Pablo II College.
- UTC Cajamarca have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FBC Melgar.
- Last 6 meetings: Sport Boys 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended UTC Cajamarca 0–0 Sport Boys.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sport Boys at 54% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
Primera División
- L0-2away to Juan Pablo II College17 October 2026
- L1-3Alianza Atletico11 October 2026
- D1-1away to FBC Melgar20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Garcilaso13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo5 September 2026
UTC Cajamarca
Primera División
- L1-2FBC Melgar23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cienciano18 October 2026
- L0-1Sporting Cristal11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sport Huancayo20 September 2026
- L1-2Juan Pablo II College11 September 2026
What these results say
- Sport Boys failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sport Boys scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sport Boys conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- UTC Cajamarca did not win any of these 5 matches.
- UTC Cajamarca conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sport Boys | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 38 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 33 | 54 | -21 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca
- 23 May 2026UTC Cajamarca 0–0 Sport BoysPrimera División
- 2 November 2025Sport Boys 2–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 28 June 2025UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Sport BoysPrimera División
- 27 October 2024Sport Boys 1–1 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 20 May 2024UTC Cajamarca 2–4 Sport BoysPrimera División
- 29 September 2023UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Sport BoysPrimera División
The two sides
Sport Boys carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.11 for UTC Cajamarca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Sport Boys and 0.80 for UTC Cajamarca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sport Boys rate 0.50 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; UTC Cajamarca rate 0.47 and 2.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sport Boys the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Sport Boys against 0.80 for UTC Cajamarca. Sport Boys's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.08 for UTC Cajamarca.
How the model reaches 54% for Sport Boys to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sport Boys to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Sport Boys's ratings take away 25 points and UTC Cajamarca's ratings add 35 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Sport Boys's ratings19%−25
- UTC Cajamarca's ratings54%+35
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sport Boys at home · UTC Cajamarca away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Sport Boys 29, UTC Cajamarca 30.
Sport Boys score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); UTC Cajamarca have let in 5 there.
UTC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Sport Boys have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Sport Boys
- at Comerciantes Unidos14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 31%
UTC Cajamarca
- vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.