Mardin 1969
vs
Batman Petrolspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Mardin 1969 2–1 Batman Petrolspor
The model makes it 49% Mardin 1969, 25% draw, 26% Batman Petrolspor — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mardin 1969 1.87, Batman Petrolspor 1.21.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Mardin 1969's rating is built from 11 TFF 1. Lig matches and Batman Petrolspor's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Mardin 1969 are 7th on 18 points from 11 games; Batman Petrolspor are 5th on 20 points from 11 games — 1. Lig.
- Mardin 1969 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Esenler Erokspor.
- Batman Petrolspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Kayserispor.
- Last 2 meetings: Mardin 1969 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 September 2023, ended Mardin 1969 4–1 Batman Petrolspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mardin 1969 vs Batman Petrolspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mardin 1969 at 49% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mardin 1969 vs Batman Petrolspor
Mardin 1969
1. Lig
- L2-4away to Esenler Erokspor19 October 2026
- W1-0Fatih Karagümrük15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bursaspor11 October 2026
- L0-1Kayserispor20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK13 September 2026
Batman Petrolspor
1. Lig
- D2-2away to Kayserispor18 October 2026
- W4-2İstanbulspor14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Iğdır FK10 October 2026
- L1-2Bursaspor19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bodrum FK12 September 2026
What these results say
- Mardin 1969 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Batman Petrolspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Batman Petrolspor had three goals or more.
- Batman Petrolspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 | Batman Petrolspor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mardin 1969 vs Batman Petrolspor
- 27 September 2023Mardin 1969 4–1 Batman PetrolsporTürkiye Kupası
- 11 September 2019Batman Petrolspor 1–3 Mardin 1969Türkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Mardin 1969 and Batman Petrolspor
Mardin 1969
GoalsAssists
- Z. Dimitrov33
- O. Kayode32
Batman Petrolspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mardin 1969 carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.41 for Batman Petrolspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Mardin 1969 and 1.21 for Batman Petrolspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mardin 1969 rate 0.59 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Batman Petrolspor rate 0.77 and 1.95.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Batman Petrolspor, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mardin 1969 a 1.1% chance of the title and Batman Petrolspor 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mardin 1969 the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Mardin 1969 against 1.21 for Batman Petrolspor. Mardin 1969's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.95 for Batman Petrolspor.
How the model reaches 49% for Mardin 1969 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mardin 1969 to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Mardin 1969's ratings take away 20 points and Batman Petrolspor's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Mardin 1969's ratings24%−20
- Batman Petrolspor's ratings49%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mardin 1969 at home · Batman Petrolspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Mardin 1969 11, Batman Petrolspor 11.
Mardin 1969 score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Batman Petrolspor have let in 9 there.
Batman Petrolspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Mardin 1969 have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Mardin 1969
- vs Bandırmaspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 41%
- at Muğlaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 30%
- vs Sarıyer6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 51%
Batman Petrolspor
- vs Muğlaspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 45%
- at Bandırmaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Keçiörengücü6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.