The model rates their attack at 0.56× the league average and their defence at 1.25× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — below average at both ends by these numbers. Next they travel to Armenia in the UEFA Nations League on 25 September 2026, a match the model gives them 33%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Latvia vs Armenia
Latvia travel to Armenia on 25 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. The model makes it 33% Latvia, 32% draw and 35% Armenia, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0. It projects 1.03 expected goals for Latvia against 1.11. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
Full preview and model analysis for Latvia vs Armenia