Regular Season - 9 · 20 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr Pro League prediction

King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah

Our model says: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–2 Al-Nassr

The model makes it 34% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 23% draw, 43% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 2.94, 4.35 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).

Expected goals: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.87, Al-Nassr 2.15.

Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Al-Ahli Jeddah's rating is built from 45 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Nassr's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.

Key facts

  • Al-Ahli Jeddah are 6th on 21 points from 11 games; Al-Nassr are 3rd on 28 points from 11 games — Pro League.
  • Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Al Shabab.
  • Al-Nassr are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-3 win at home to Al Kholood.
  • Last 6 meetings: Al-Nassr 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 April 2026, ended Al-Nassr 2–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.

More Saudi Pro League predictions

All Saudi Pro League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr

75%
Both teams to score
76%
Over 2.5 goals
24%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Al-Ahli Jeddah win Draw Al-Nassr win
  1. 1–28%
  2. 1–18%
  3. 2–27%
  4. 2–17%
  5. 1–36%
  6. 2–35%
  7. 3–25%

Scores read Al-Ahli Jeddah first; the other scorelines share the remaining 55%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Nassr at 43%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Pro League

  • L1-6away to Al Shabab30 October 2026
  • W4-1Al Khaleej Saihat23 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Al-Fayha19 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
  • W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026

Al-Nassr

Pro League

  • W5-3Al Kholood29 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC23 October 2026
  • W1-0NEOM20 October 2026
  • W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
  • Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Al-Nassr went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Al-Nassr won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Al-Ahli Jeddah117042819+921
3Al-Nassr119112811+1728

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Chance to finish in the top four · 49% today

Win 57%
Draw 49%
Defeat 44%

Al-Nassr

Chance to win the league · 17% today

Win 20%
Draw 15%
Defeat 12%

From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr

  • 29 April 2026Al-Nassr 2–0 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
  • 2 January 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–2 Al-NassrPro League
  • 23 August 2025Al-Nassr 2–2 Al-Ahli JeddahSuper Cup
  • 13 February 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–3 Al-NassrPro League
  • 13 September 2024Al-Nassr 1–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
  • 15 March 2024Al-Ahli Jeddah 0–1 Al-NassrPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr

Al-Ahli Jeddah

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toney132
  • Trincão63

Al-Nassr

GoalsAssists

  • Cristiano Ronaldo80
  • Ângelo53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 1.1% chance of the title and Al-Nassr 16.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Nassr has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 34% / 23% / 43%: the biggest move is Al-Nassr's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Al-Ahli Jeddah win34%▼ −3
  2. Draw23%▼ −4
  3. Al-Nassr win43%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Nassr
1.11 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.16
1.25 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.02
1.87 Model expected goals (this match) 2.15

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 2.15 for Al-Nassr. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.02 for Al-Nassr.

Al-Ahli Jeddah carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.92 for Al-Nassr. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for Al-Nassr to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Nassr to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Al-Ahli Jeddah's ratings add 4 points and Al-Nassr's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage34%−3
  3. Both sides at this match's level35%+1
  4. Al-Ahli Jeddah's ratings39%+4
  5. Al-Nassr's ratings43%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Nassr
11Matches11
7W 0D 4LRecord9W 1D 1L
28 2.5 per gameGoals scored28 2.5 per game
19 1.7 per gameGoals conceded11 1.0 per game
4 of 11Clean sheets4 of 11
1 of 11Failed to score0 of 11
6 of 7Penalties scored0 of 1
16 1.5 per gameYellow cards16 1.5 per game
2Red cards1
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-4-2 5×

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home · Al-Nassr away

4Played5
4W 0D 0LRecord3W 1D 1L
16–2Goals for – against12–6
2 of 4Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ahli Jeddah 11, Al-Nassr 11.

Al-Ahli Jeddah scored 237654
Al-Nassr conceded 223220

Al-Ahli Jeddah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Al-Nassr have let in 3 there.

Al-Nassr scored 147366
Al-Ahli Jeddah conceded 525125

Al-Nassr score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Al-Ahli Jeddah have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Nassr

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.