Al-Faisaly FC
vs
Al Diriyah
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Faisaly FC 0–1 Al Diriyah
The model makes it 34% Al-Faisaly FC, 30% draw, 36% Al Diriyah — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Al-Faisaly FC 1.17, Al Diriyah 1.23.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.
A tight game: Al-Faisaly FC and Al Diriyah are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Al-Faisaly FC's rating is built from 12 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Diriyah's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Faisaly FC are 15th on 10 points from 12 games; Al Diriyah are 8th on 15 points from 12 games — Pro League.
- Al-Faisaly FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Al-Fayha.
- Al Diriyah have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to NEOM.
- Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Al-Faisaly FC 2–2 Al Diriyah.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah
Has the model earned this number?
Al Diriyah at 36%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah
Al-Faisaly FC
Pro League
- L1-4away to Al-Fayha31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Abha27 October 2026
- L1-3Al-Nassr23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al Shabab19 October 2026
- W3-2Al Kholood15 October 2026
Al Diriyah
Pro League
- L1-2NEOM30 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al-Ittihad23 October 2026
- W1-0Al Riyadh20 October 2026
- D1-1Al Taawon17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Nassr9 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Faisaly FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Faisaly FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Faisaly FC had three goals or more.
- Al Diriyah failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Diriyah conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Faisaly FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
Al Diriyah
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah
- 7 March 2026Al-Faisaly FC 2–2 Al DiriyahDivision 1
- 23 November 2025Al Diriyah 1–1 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al-Faisaly FC and Al Diriyah
Al-Faisaly FC
GoalsAssists
- Alexandre Mendy51
Al Diriyah
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Al-Faisaly FC v Al Diriyah has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). After 5 updates it reads 34% / 30% / 36%: the biggest move is Al-Faisaly FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Al-Faisaly FC win34%▲ +2
- Draw30%=
- Al Diriyah win36%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Diriyah the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC against 1.23 for Al Diriyah. Al-Faisaly FC's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.11 for Al Diriyah.
How the model reaches 36% for Al Diriyah to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al Diriyah to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al-Faisaly FC's ratings add 2 points and Al Diriyah's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage34%−3
- Both sides at this match's level33%−1
- Al-Faisaly FC's ratings35%+2
- Al Diriyah's ratings36%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Faisaly FC at home · Al Diriyah away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Faisaly FC 12, Al Diriyah 12.
Al Diriyah score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Al-Faisaly FC have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Faisaly FC
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 15%
- vs Al Khaleej Saihat10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at Al Taawon18 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al Riyadh2 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 44%
- vs Al-Hilal8 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 11%
Al Diriyah
- at Al-Hilal3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 12%
- vs Al-Fayha10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Al Khaleej Saihat18 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al Shabab2 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah8 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.