Regular Season - 13 · 26 November 2026, 15:05 UTC

Abha vs Al Shabab Pro League prediction

Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Abha

Our model says: Abha 0–1 Al Shabab

The model makes it 25% Abha, 27% draw, 48% Al Shabab — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Abha 1.08, Al Shabab 1.68.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.

Edge to Al Shabab: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Abha's rating is built from 11 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Shabab's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.

Key facts

  • Abha are bottom on 3 points from 11 games; Al Shabab are 10th on 14 points from 11 games — Pro League.
  • Abha have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Al-Ittihad.
  • Al Shabab are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 6-1 win at home to Al-Ahli Jeddah.
  • Last 6 meetings: Al Shabab 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 September 2025, ended Abha 1–1 Al Shabab.

More Saudi Pro League predictions

All Saudi Pro League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Abha vs Al Shabab

54%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Abha win Draw Al Shabab win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–210%
  4. 0–29%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Abha first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Al Shabab at 48%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Abha vs Al Shabab

Abha

Pro League

  • D1-1Al-Ittihad30 October 2026
  • L0-1Al-Faisaly FC27 October 2026
  • L0-2away to NEOM24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026

Al Shabab

Pro League

  • W6-1Al-Ahli Jeddah30 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Al-Fateh22 October 2026
  • D2-2Al-Faisaly FC19 October 2026
  • W3-0Al Taawon11 October 2026
  • D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Abha did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Abha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Abha had two goals or fewer.
  • Al Shabab went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Al Shabab scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Al Shabab had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Abha11038719-123
10Al Shabab113532015+514

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Abha

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 75% today

Win 66%
Draw 75%
Defeat 79%

From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Abha vs Al Shabab

  • 22 September 2025Abha 1–1 Al ShababKing's Cup
  • 18 April 2024Al Shabab 5–0 AbhaPro League
  • 28 October 2023Abha 2–1 Al ShababPro League
  • 14 February 2023Al Shabab 2–0 AbhaPro League
  • 1 September 2022Abha 0–4 Al ShababPro League
  • 8 January 2022Al Shabab 1–1 AbhaPro League

Leading scorers: Abha and Al Shabab

Abha

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Al Shabab

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Carrasco61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Abha v Al Shabab has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 32% / 27% / 41% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 25% / 27% / 48%: the biggest move is Abha's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Abha win25%▼ −7
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Al Shabab win48%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Abha Al Shabab
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.83
1.36 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.36
1.08 Model expected goals (this match) 1.68

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al Shabab the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Abha against 1.68 for Al Shabab. Abha's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.36 for Al Shabab.

How the model reaches 48% for Al Shabab to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al Shabab to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Abha's ratings add 6 points and Al Shabab's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 48%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage34%−3
  3. Both sides at this match's level33%−1
  4. Abha's ratings39%+6
  5. Al Shabab's ratings48%+9

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

AbhaAl Shabab
11Matches11
0W 3D 8LRecord3W 5D 3L
7 0.6 per gameGoals scored20 1.8 per game
19 1.7 per gameGoals conceded15 1.4 per game
1 of 11Clean sheets3 of 11
5 of 11Failed to score3 of 11
1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 3
24 2.2 per gameYellow cards22 2.0 per game
0Red cards2
4-2-3-1 3×Usual shape4-4-2 8×

Abha at home · Al Shabab away

5Played4
0W 2D 3LRecord1W 2D 1L
3–6Goals for – against5–4
0 of 5Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Pro League matches this season: Abha 11, Al Shabab 11.

Abha scored 010026
Al Shabab conceded 016207

Abha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Al Shabab have let in 7 there.

Al Shabab scored 445312
Abha conceded 432620

Al Shabab score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Abha have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Abha

  • at Al Taawon3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 29%
  • vs Al Kholood7 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
  • vs Al Riyadh10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 39%
  • at Al-Hilal17 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 8%
  • vs Al-Fateh1 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 36%

Al Shabab

  • vs Al-Ettifaq3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 42%
  • at Al-Nassr12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 19%
  • vs NEOM16 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
  • at Al-Ittihad21 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 28%
  • at Al Diriyah2 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.