Al-Fateh
vs
Al Riyadh
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Fateh 2–1 Al Riyadh
The model makes it 41% Al-Fateh, 27% draw, 32% Al Riyadh — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Fateh 1.56, Al Riyadh 1.29.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Al-Fateh's rating is built from 46 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Riyadh's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Fateh are 16th on 6 points from 12 games; Al Riyadh are 12th on 12 points from 11 games — Pro League.
- Al-Fateh are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Al-Hilal.
- Al Riyadh have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat at home to Al-Qadisiyah FC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Al Riyadh 1–0 Al-Fateh.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Fateh at 41%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh
Al-Fateh
Pro League
- L0-2away to Al-Hilal31 October 2026
- L1-3Al Shabab22 October 2026
- L2-3Al Khaleej Saihat18 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Hazm15 October 2026
- L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026
Al Riyadh
Pro League
- L0-6Al-Qadisiyah FC29 October 2026
- W2-1Al Taawon24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al Diriyah20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Fayha11 October 2026
- W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Fateh conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fateh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Fateh had three goals or more.
- Al Riyadh conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 6 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Fateh
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today
Al Riyadh
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh
- 10 May 2026Al Riyadh 1–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 13 January 2026Al-Fateh 3–1 Al RiyadhPro League
- 27 October 2025Al-Fateh 2–0 Al RiyadhKing's Cup
- 23 April 2025Al Riyadh 2–2 Al-FatehPro League
- 28 November 2024Al-Fateh 1–2 Al RiyadhPro League
- 2 May 2024Al-Fateh 2–2 Al RiyadhPro League
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Riyadh (12th, with Al-Fateh 16th), while our numbers lean to Al-Fateh. Al-Fateh rate 0.57 in attack and 1.53 in defence, Al Riyadh 0.57 and 1.66 (lower is better in defence), so Al-Fateh have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Fateh the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al-Fateh against 1.29 for Al Riyadh. Al-Fateh's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.66 for Al Riyadh.
How the model reaches 41% for Al-Fateh to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Fateh to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al-Fateh's ratings add 1 point and Al Riyadh's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level39%−1
- Al-Fateh's ratings40%+1
- Al Riyadh's ratings41%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Fateh at home · Al Riyadh away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Fateh 12, Al Riyadh 11.
Al-Fateh score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Al Riyadh have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Fateh
- at Al-Fayha5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 28%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC11 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 10%
- vs Al Kholood16 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Abha1 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- vs Al-Nassr7 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 14%
Al Riyadh
- vs Al-Hazm5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- at Abha10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- vs Al-Ittihad17 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 20%
- vs Al-Hilal21 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 9%
- at Al-Faisaly FC2 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.