Sumqayıt
vs
Sabah FA
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Sumqayıt 1–2 Sabah FA
The model makes it 20% Sumqayıt, 23% draw, 57% Sabah FA — fair odds of 5.00, 4.35 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Sumqayıt 1.08, Sabah FA 2.19.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Sabah FA are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sumqayıt's rating is built from 42 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Sabah FA's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sumqayıt are 9th on 10 points from 10 games; Sabah FA are 3rd on 21 points from 10 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Sumqayıt are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Imisli FK.
- Sabah FA are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Şamaxı FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Sabah FA 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 March 2026, ended Sabah FA 3–1 Sumqayıt.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sumqayıt vs Sabah FA
Has the model earned this number?
Sabah FA at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sumqayıt vs Sabah FA
Sumqayıt
Premyer Liqa
- D0-0away to Imisli FK8 November 2026
- D1-1Safa Baku2 November 2026
- L2-3away to Zira23 October 2026
- W2-1Araz16 October 2026
- W4-1Qabala10 October 2026
Sabah FA
Premyer Liqa
- D2-2Şamaxı FK8 November 2026
- L2-3away to Turan30 October 2026
- D0-0Qarabag25 October 2026
- W4-0away to Qabala17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Neftchi Baku9 October 2026
What these results say
- Sumqayıt scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sumqayıt conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sumqayıt.
- Sabah FA failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sumqayıt | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 3 | Sabah FA | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sumqayıt
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 13% today
Sabah FA
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 55% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sumqayıt vs Sabah FA
- 19 March 2026Sabah FA 3–1 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 22 December 2025Sumqayıt 1–3 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 28 September 2025Sabah FA 1–1 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 29 March 2025Sumqayıt 3–3 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 27 February 2025Sumqayıt 0–4 Sabah FACup
- 5 February 2025Sabah FA 0–0 SumqayıtCup
Leading scorers: Sumqayıt and Sabah FA
Sumqayıt
No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Sabah FA
GoalsAssists
- U. Rahmonaliyev10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sumqayıt a 0% chance of the title and Sabah FA 54.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Sumqayıt v Sabah FA has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 18% / 22% / 60% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 20% / 23% / 57%: the biggest move is Sabah FA's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Sumqayıt win20%▲ +2
- Draw23%▲ +1
- Sabah FA win57%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabah FA the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sumqayıt against 2.19 for Sabah FA. Sumqayıt's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.09 for Sabah FA.
How the model reaches 57% for Sabah FA to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sabah FA to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Sumqayıt's ratings add 14 points and Sabah FA's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Sumqayıt's ratings43%+14
- Sabah FA's ratings57%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sumqayıt at home · Sabah FA away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Sumqayıt 10, Sabah FA 10.
Sumqayıt score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Sabah FA have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sumqayıt
- at Qarabag28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 12%
- vs Turan5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 32%
- at Şamaxı FK13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 26%
- at Sabah FA17 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 10%
- vs Kapaz19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 46%
Sabah FA
- vs Barcelona25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 9%
- vs Araz28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 82%
- at Zira5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 50%
- at Villarreal8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 18%
- vs Safa Baku13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 81%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.