Safa Baku
vs
Araz
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Safa Baku 1–0 Araz
The model makes it 41% Safa Baku, 28% draw, 31% Araz — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Safa Baku 1.50, Araz 1.23.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Safa Baku's rating is built from 8 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Araz's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Safa Baku are 11th on 3 points from 8 games; Araz are bottom on 2 points from 9 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Safa Baku have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Şamaxı FK.
- Araz have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Qabala.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Safa Baku vs Araz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Safa Baku at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Safa Baku vs Araz
Safa Baku
Premyer Liqa
- L2-3away to Şamaxı FK16 October 2026
- L0-1Turan11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Qarabag18 September 2026
- L0-3Sabah FA14 September 2026
- L1-4away to Neftchi Baku5 September 2026
Araz
Premyer Liqa
- L1-2Qabala23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sumqayıt16 October 2026
- L0-2Kapaz9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Şamaxı FK20 September 2026
- D2-2Turan13 September 2026
What these results say
- Safa Baku did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Araz did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Araz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Araz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Safa Baku | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 3 |
| 12 | Araz | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Safa Baku carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.15 for Araz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Safa Baku and 1.23 for Araz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Safa Baku rate 0.43 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Araz rate 0.53 and 2.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Safa Baku the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Safa Baku against 1.23 for Araz. Safa Baku's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.15 for Araz.
How the model reaches 41% for Safa Baku to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Safa Baku to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Safa Baku's ratings take away 32 points and Araz's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Safa Baku's ratings12%−32
- Araz's ratings41%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Safa Baku at home · Araz away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Safa Baku 8, Araz 9.
Safa Baku score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Araz have let in 3 there.
Araz score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Safa Baku have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Safa Baku
- vs Qabala21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 41%
- at Imisli FK28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 25%
- vs Neftchi Baku5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 17%
Araz
- vs Neftchi Baku22 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 19%
- at Sabah FA28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 5%
- vs Qarabag5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 17%
- at Turan13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.