Twente
vs
Willem II
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Twente 3–0 Willem II
The model makes it 87% Twente, 9% draw, 4% Willem II — fair odds of 1.15, 11.11 and 25.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Twente 3.97, Willem II 0.61.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Twente are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Twente's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and Willem II's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Twente are 4th on 24 points from 12 games; Willem II are bottom on 3 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Twente are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Ajax.
- Willem II have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to PEC Zwolle.
- Last 6 meetings: Twente 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 January 2025, ended Twente 6–2 Willem II.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Twente vs Willem II
Has the model earned this number?
Twente at 87%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Twente vs Willem II
Twente
Eredivisie
- D2-2Ajax8 November 2026
- W9-0away to Excelsior1 November 2026
- W2-0away to AZ Alkmaar25 October 2026
- L1-2Utrecht18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026
Willem II
Eredivisie
- D1-1PEC Zwolle6 November 2026
- L0-7away to PSV Eindhoven31 October 2026
- L1-6Cambuur24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sparta Rotterdam17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026
What these results say
- Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Willem II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Twente
Chance to finish in the top four · 83% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Twente vs Willem II
Twente and Willem II have met 6 times in the records we hold, Twente has won 4 of them to Willem II's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Twente won the last one 6–2 on 12 Jan 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 4 |
| Willem II | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 12 Jan 2025
EredivisieTwente 6–2 Willem II - 2 Nov 2024
EredivisieWillem II 0–1 Twente - 22 Jan 2022
EredivisieWillem II 0–1 Twente - 17 Oct 2021
EredivisieTwente 1–1 Willem II - 6 Mar 2021
EredivisieTwente 1–1 Willem II - 17 Oct 2020
EredivisieWillem II 0–3 Twente
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Twente's attack rates 111% above Willem II's, and Twente concede 60% fewer than Willem II. That gives Twente the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Twente and Willem II
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst92
Willem II
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Twente a 15.7% chance of the title and Willem II 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 87%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.97 expected goals for Twente against 0.61 for Willem II. Twente's attack/defence rating is 1.12/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.91 for Willem II.
How the model reaches 87% for Twente to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Twente to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Twente's ratings add 23 points and Willem II's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 87%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Twente's ratings66%+23
- Willem II's ratings87%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Twente at home · Willem II away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
TwenteWillem II
Twente are 4th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 3rd and 14th so far); Willem II are 18th after 12 (between 15th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Twente 12, Willem II 12.
Willem II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Twente have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Twente
- at SC Freiburg26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 28%
- at NEC Nijmegen29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 49%
- at GO Ahead Eagles6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 56%
- at Aarhus10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 46%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 73%
Willem II
- at Groningen27 Nov · Eredivisiewin 10%
- vs Feyenoord5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 8%
- vs ADO Den Haag13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 23%
- at Telstar18 Dec · Eredivisiewin 12%
- vs Ajax9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 8%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.