Regular Season - 37 · 24 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Chapecoense vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction

Arena Condá, Chapeco

Our model says: Chapecoense 0–2 Palmeiras

The model makes it 14% Chapecoense, 22% draw, 64% Palmeiras — fair odds of 7.14, 4.55 and 1.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).

Expected goals: Chapecoense 0.73, Palmeiras 2.15.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Palmeiras are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Chapecoense are bottom on 21 points from 33 games; Palmeiras are 2nd on 73 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Chapecoense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Mirassol.
  • Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 6-1 win at home to Remo.
  • Last 6 meetings: Palmeiras 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Palmeiras 1–0 Chapecoense.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Chapecoense vs Palmeiras

46%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Chapecoense win Draw Palmeiras win
  1. 0–213%
  2. 0–112%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–39%
  5. 1–19%
  6. 1–37%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Chapecoense first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Palmeiras at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Chapecoense vs Palmeiras

Chapecoense

Serie A

  • L1-2Mirassol3 November 2026
  • L0-3away to RB Bragantino28 October 2026
  • W2-1Fluminense24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Botafogo17 October 2026
  • L1-4Atletico Paranaense12 October 2026

Palmeiras

Serie A

  • W6-1Remo5 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Santos28 October 2026
  • W2-0RB Bragantino24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Atletico Paranaense17 October 2026
  • W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Chapecoense had three goals or more.
  • Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Palmeiras won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Chapecoense3349203368-3521
2Palmeiras34211036223+3973

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Palmeiras

Chance to win the league · 23% today

Win 27%
Draw 13%
Defeat 8%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Palmeiras

Chapecoense and Palmeiras have met 6 times in the records we hold, Palmeiras has won 6 of them to Chapecoense's 0.

The record

Palmeiras won the last one 1–0 on 31 May 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Chapecoense006311
Palmeiras600113

Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 May 2026
    Serie A    Palmeiras 1–0 Chapecoense
  • 18 Sep 2021
    Serie A    Chapecoense 0–2 Palmeiras
  • 6 Jun 2021
    Serie A    Palmeiras 3–1 Chapecoense
  • 17 Oct 2019
    Serie A    Palmeiras 1–0 Chapecoense
  • 2 Jun 2019
    Serie A    Chapecoense 1–2 Palmeiras
  • 2 Sep 2018
    Serie A    Chapecoense 1–2 Palmeiras

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Palmeiras' attack rates 67% above Chapecoense's, and Palmeiras concede 60% fewer than Chapecoense. That gives Palmeiras the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Chapecoense0.691.67
Palmeiras1.150.67

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Palmeiras

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Palmeiras

GoalsAssists

  • J. López107
  • Maurício101

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chapecoense a 0% chance of the title and Palmeiras 23%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Chapecoense Palmeiras
0.69 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.15
1.67 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.67
0.73 Model expected goals (this match) 2.15

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Chapecoense against 2.15 for Palmeiras. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.67 for Palmeiras.

Chapecoense carry a model rating of 6.41 against 7.13 for Palmeiras.

How the model reaches 64% for Palmeiras to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Palmeiras to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Chapecoense's ratings add 19 points and Palmeiras's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 64%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage28%−8
  3. Both sides at this match's level27%−1
  4. Chapecoense's ratings46%+19
  5. Palmeiras's ratings64%+18

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ChapecoensePalmeiras
33Matches34
4W 9D 20LRecord21W 10D 3L
33 1.0 per gameGoals scored62 1.8 per game
68 2.1 per gameGoals conceded23 0.7 per game
2 of 33Clean sheets16 of 34
11 of 33Failed to score5 of 34
2 of 3Penalties scored3 of 5
71 2.2 per gameYellow cards77 2.3 per game
2Red cards6
4-2-3-1 15×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Chapecoense at home · Palmeiras away

16Played17
3W 5D 8LRecord8W 7D 2L
22–36Goals for – against26–12
2 of 16Clean sheets9 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Chapecoense 33, Palmeiras 34.

Chapecoense scored 3675410
Palmeiras conceded 217737

Chapecoense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Palmeiras have let in 7 there.

Palmeiras scored 12119999
Chapecoense conceded 71311131111

Palmeiras score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Chapecoense have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Chapecoense

  • at Flamengo3 Dec · Serie Awin 5%

Palmeiras

  • vs Estudiantes La Plata28 Nov · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 69%
  • vs Coritiba3 Dec · Serie Awin 73%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.