Swansea
vs
Cardiff
Championship prediction
Our model says: Swansea 2–1 Cardiff
The model makes it 47% Swansea, 25% draw, 28% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Swansea 1.86, Cardiff 1.34.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Swansea's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Cardiff's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Swansea are 6th on 26 points from 15 games; Cardiff are 14th on 18 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Swansea have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Birmingham.
- Cardiff have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-4 win at home to Burnley.
- Last 6 meetings: Swansea 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 January 2025, ended Cardiff 3–0 Swansea.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Swansea vs Cardiff
Has the model earned this number?
Swansea at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Swansea vs Cardiff
Swansea
Championship
- L1-2away to Birmingham7 November 2026
- L1-3away to Portsmouth3 November 2026
- W4-0Blackburn31 October 2026
- L0-5away to QPR24 October 2026
- L0-1West Ham17 October 2026
Cardiff
Championship
- W5-4Burnley7 November 2026
- D3-3West Ham4 November 2026
- L0-3away to Wolves31 October 2026
- W1-0Birmingham24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough17 October 2026
What these results say
- Swansea failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Swansea had three goals or more.
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cardiff had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 26 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Swansea
Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Swansea
Cardiff and Swansea have met 6 times in the records we hold, Swansea has won 3 of them to Cardiff's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Cardiff won the last one 3–0 on 18 Jan 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Swansea | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 18 Jan 2025
ChampionshipCardiff 3–0 Swansea - 25 Aug 2024
ChampionshipSwansea 1–1 Cardiff - 16 Mar 2024
ChampionshipSwansea 2–0 Cardiff - 16 Sep 2023
ChampionshipCardiff 2–0 Swansea - 1 Apr 2023
ChampionshipCardiff 2–3 Swansea - 23 Oct 2022
ChampionshipSwansea 2–0 Cardiff
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Cardiff's attack rates 23% above Swansea's, and Swansea concede 25% fewer than Cardiff. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Swansea and Cardiff
Swansea
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan103
- Y. Salech51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swansea a 1.9% chance of the title and Cardiff 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swansea the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Swansea against 1.34 for Cardiff. Swansea's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.65 for Cardiff.
How the model reaches 47% for Swansea to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Swansea to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Swansea's ratings change nothing and Cardiff's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+2
- Swansea's ratings44%±0
- Cardiff's ratings47%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Swansea at home · Cardiff away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SwanseaCardiff
Swansea are 6th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Cardiff are 14th after 15 (between 11th and 22nd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Swansea 15, Cardiff 15.
Swansea score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Cardiff have let in 7 there.
Cardiff score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Swansea have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Swansea
- at Bristol City5 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
- vs Bolton8 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
- at Charlton12 Dec · Championshipwin 41%
Cardiff
- vs Lincoln5 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
- at West Brom8 Dec · Championshipwin 26%
- vs Southampton12 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.