Sturm Graz
vs
WSG Wattens
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Sturm Graz 2–0 WSG Wattens
The model makes it 61% Sturm Graz, 23% draw, 16% WSG Wattens — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 2.12, WSG Wattens 0.84.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Sturm Graz are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sturm Graz's rating is built from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches and WSG Wattens's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 462 matches.
Key facts
- Sturm Graz are 5th on 19 points from 12 games; WSG Wattens are 7th on 13 points from 12 games — Bundesliga.
- Sturm Graz are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Red Bull Salzburg.
- WSG Wattens are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Austria Vienna.
- Last 6 meetings: Sturm Graz 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended WSG Wattens 1–1 Sturm Graz.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens
Has the model earned this number?
Sturm Graz at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens
Sturm Graz
Bundesliga
- L3-4Red Bull Salzburg8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 November 2026
- D2-2Ried25 October 2026
- W6-1Grazer AK18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna10 October 2026
WSG Wattens
Bundesliga
- D1-1Austria Vienna8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Lask Linz31 October 2026
- D1-1Grazer AK24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Wolfsberger AC18 October 2026
- L1-2Ried10 October 2026
What these results say
- Sturm Graz scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sturm Graz.
- WSG Wattens scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- WSG Wattens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- WSG Wattens conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 19 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens
- 1 August 2026WSG Wattens 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 14 February 2026WSG Wattens 1–0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 3 December 2025Sturm Graz 1–3 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 7 December 2024WSG Wattens 0–3 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 31 August 2024Sturm Graz 4–2 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 25 February 2024WSG Wattens 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité90
WSG Wattens
GoalsAssists
- N. Frederiksen50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Sturm Graz against 0.84 for WSG Wattens. Sturm Graz's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.58 for WSG Wattens.
How the model reaches 61% for Sturm Graz to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sturm Graz to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sturm Graz's ratings add 10 points and WSG Wattens's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Sturm Graz's ratings52%+10
- WSG Wattens's ratings61%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sturm Graz at home · WSG Wattens away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Sturm GrazWSG Wattens
Sturm Graz are 5th after 12 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 5th so far); WSG Wattens are 7th after 12 (between 3rd and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Sturm Graz 12, WSG Wattens 12.
Sturm Graz score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); WSG Wattens have let in 4 there.
WSG Wattens score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Sturm Graz have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sturm Graz
- vs Austria Vienna6 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
- at AZ Alkmaar10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 20%
- at Grazer AK13 Dec · Bundesligawin 55%
WSG Wattens
- at Ried6 Dec · Bundesligawin 26%
- vs SCR Altach12 Dec · Bundesligawin 42%
- vs Lask Linz23 Jan · Bundesligawin 24%
- at Grazer AK30 Jan · Bundesligawin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.