Brighton
vs
Brentford
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Brighton 2–1 Brentford
The model makes it 54% Brighton, 24% draw, 22% Brentford — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Brighton 2.10, Brentford 1.18.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,563 settled matches.
Edge to Brighton: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Brighton's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and Brentford's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 835 matches.
Key facts
- Brighton are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games; Brentford are 7th on 10 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Brighton are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-0 win at home to Crystal Palace.
- Brentford have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Liverpool.
- Last 6 meetings: Brighton 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Brentford 0–2 Brighton.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brighton vs Brentford
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 54% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Brighton vs Brentford
Brighton
Premier League
- W5-0Crystal Palace18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026
- W3-0Arsenal19 September 2026
- W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
Brentford
Premier League
- L1-2Liverpool17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Aston Villa10 October 2026
- W3-0Chelsea18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bournemouth12 September 2026
- D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
What these results say
- Brighton went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Brighton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brighton won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brentford scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brentford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brentford conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 16 |
| 7 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Brighton
Brentford and Brighton have met 6 times in the records we hold, Brighton has won 3 of them to Brentford's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Brighton won the last one 2–0 on 21 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Brighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Feb 2026
Premier LeagueBrentford 0–2 Brighton - 22 Nov 2025
Premier LeagueBrighton 2–1 Brentford - 19 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueBrentford 4–2 Brighton - 27 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueBrighton 0–0 Brentford - 3 Apr 2024
Premier LeagueBrentford 0–0 Brighton - 6 Dec 2023
Premier LeagueBrighton 2–1 Brentford
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Brighton and Brentford
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß34
- C. Kostoulas32
- J. Hinshelwood30
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Brighton carry a model rating of 7.19 against 6.97 for Brentford. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Brighton and 1.18 for Brentford. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brighton rate 1.47 in attack and 0.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brentford rate 1.14 and 0.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Brighton a 13.5% chance of the title and Brentford 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Brighton against 1.18 for Brentford. Brighton's attack/defence rating is 1.47/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.89 for Brentford.
How the model reaches 54% for Brighton to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Brighton to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Brighton's ratings add 20 points and Brentford's ratings take away 7 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Brighton's ratings61%+20
- Brentford's ratings54%−7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Brighton at home · Brentford away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BrightonBrentford
Brighton are 3rd after 7 Premier League matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Brentford are 7th after 7 (between 2nd and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Brighton 7, Brentford 7.
Brentford score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Brighton have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Brighton
- at Hull City22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- vs Universitatea Craiova26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 66%
Brentford
- vs Everton23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Manchester United28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Arsenal2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.