Sunderland
vs
Chelsea
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Sunderland 1–2 Chelsea
The model makes it 32% Sunderland, 25% draw, 43% Chelsea — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.48, Chelsea 1.79.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Chelsea: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Sunderland's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and Chelsea's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 835 matches.
Key facts
- Sunderland are bottom on 4 points from 7 games; Chelsea are 4th on 13 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Sunderland have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Bournemouth.
- Chelsea have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Tottenham.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sunderland vs Chelsea
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chelsea at 43% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sunderland vs Chelsea
Sunderland
Premier League
- L0-2away to Bournemouth18 October 2026
- L0-2Brighton10 October 2026
- L3-5away to Manchester City20 September 2026
- L0-2Arsenal12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
Chelsea
Premier League
- L0-2Tottenham24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Everton17 October 2026
- W5-1Bournemouth10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Brentford18 September 2026
- D2-2Hull City12 September 2026
What these results say
- Sunderland did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sunderland conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sunderland had two goals or fewer.
- Chelsea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Chelsea
- 24 May 2026Sunderland 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 25 October 2025Chelsea 1–2 SunderlandPremier League
- 21 May 2017Chelsea 5–1 SunderlandPremier League
- 14 December 2016Sunderland 0–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 7 May 2016Sunderland 3–2 ChelseaPremier League
- 19 December 2015Chelsea 3–1 SunderlandPremier League
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Chelsea
Sunderland
GoalsAssists
- B. Brobbey30
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers41
- Pedro Neto31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sunderland carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.94 for Chelsea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Sunderland and 1.79 for Chelsea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sunderland rate 0.85 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chelsea rate 1.27 and 1.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sunderland a 0% chance of the title and Chelsea 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chelsea the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sunderland against 1.79 for Chelsea. Sunderland's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/1.09 for Chelsea.
How the model reaches 43% for Chelsea to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Chelsea to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Sunderland's ratings add 4 points and Chelsea's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Sunderland's ratings37%+4
- Chelsea's ratings43%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sunderland at home · Chelsea away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SunderlandChelsea
Sunderland are 20th after 7 Premier League matches (between 10th and 19th so far); Chelsea are 4th after 8 (between 3rd and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Sunderland 7, Chelsea 8.
Sunderland score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Chelsea have let in 2 there.
Chelsea score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Sunderland have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sunderland
- at Aston Villa21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Jagiellonia26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 50%
Chelsea
- vs Leeds21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Nottingham Forest27 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Crystal Palace2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- vs Liverpool5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.