Brentford
vs
Nottingham Forest
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Brentford 2–1 Nottingham Forest
The model makes it 46% Brentford, 27% draw, 27% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Brentford 1.65, Nottingham Forest 1.15.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Brentford are 6th on 10 points from 7 games; Nottingham Forest are 16th on 5 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Brentford have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Liverpool.
- Nottingham Forest have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Crystal Palace.
- Last 6 meetings: Nottingham Forest 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Brentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brentford at 46% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 1,804 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Brentford
- L1-2Liverpool17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Aston Villa10 October 2026
- W3-0Chelsea18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bournemouth12 September 2026
- D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
Nottingham Forest
- L1-3away to Crystal Palace11 October 2026
- L0-1Coventry19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aston Villa12 September 2026
- D0-0Tottenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Liverpool29 August 2026
What these results say
- Brentford scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brentford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brentford conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 10 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Brentford
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
Nottingham Forest
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Brentford and Nottingham Forest have met 6 times in the records we hold, Nottingham Forest has won 3 of them to Brentford's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Nottingham Forest won the last one 2–0 on 25 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Jan 2026
Premier LeagueBrentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest - 17 Aug 2025
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest 3–1 Brentford - 1 May 2025
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest 0–2 Brentford - 21 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueBrentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest - 20 Jan 2024
Premier LeagueBrentford 3–2 Nottingham Forest - 1 Oct 2023
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest 1–1 Brentford
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 1.13 | 0.89 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.93 | 0.91 |
Leading scorers: Brentford and Nottingham Forest
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Brentford carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.86 for Nottingham Forest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Brentford and 1.15 for Nottingham Forest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brentford rate 1.13 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nottingham Forest rate 0.93 and 0.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Brentford a 0.3% chance of the title and Nottingham Forest 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brentford the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Brentford against 1.15 for Nottingham Forest. Brentford's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/0.91 for Nottingham Forest.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Brentford at home · Nottingham Forest away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Brentford 7, Nottingham Forest 6.
Brentford score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Nottingham Forest have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Brentford
- at Brighton8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Everton23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Manchester United28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Arsenal2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
Nottingham Forest
- vs Manchester City7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- at Bournemouth21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Chelsea27 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.