Ipswich
vs
Bournemouth
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Ipswich 2–1 Bournemouth
The model makes it 38% Ipswich, 25% draw, 37% Bournemouth — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ipswich 1.73, Bournemouth 1.72.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,013 settled matches.
A tight game: Ipswich and Bournemouth are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Ipswich's rating is built from 8 Premier League matches and Bournemouth's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 835 matches.
Key facts
- Ipswich are 10th on 10 points from 8 games; Bournemouth are 17th on 6 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Ipswich have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Nottingham Forest.
- Bournemouth have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Sunderland.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 2 April 2025, ended Bournemouth 1–2 Ipswich.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ipswich vs Bournemouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ipswich at 38% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ipswich vs Bournemouth
Ipswich
Premier League
- D1-1Nottingham Forest23 October 2026
- L2-3away to Manchester City17 October 2026
- W2-1Fulham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Everton19 September 2026
- W3-2away to Crystal Palace12 September 2026
Bournemouth
Premier League
- W2-0Sunderland18 October 2026
- L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026
- L0-1Liverpool20 September 2026
- D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
What these results say
- Ipswich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ipswich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ipswich.
- Bournemouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Ipswich
Bournemouth and Ipswich have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 1 each, with 4 drawn.
The record
Ipswich won the last one 2–1 on 2 Apr 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Ipswich | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueBournemouth 1–2 Ipswich - 8 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueIpswich 1–2 Bournemouth - 3 Apr 2015
ChampionshipIpswich 1–1 Bournemouth - 22 Nov 2014
ChampionshipBournemouth 2–2 Ipswich - 21 Apr 2014
ChampionshipIpswich 2–2 Bournemouth - 29 Dec 2013
ChampionshipBournemouth 1–1 Ipswich
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| Ipswich | 1.09 | 1.18 |
Leading scorers: Ipswich and Bournemouth
Ipswich
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- M. Tavernier40
- Evanilson24
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ipswich carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.88 for Bournemouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Ipswich and 1.72 for Bournemouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ipswich rate 1.09 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bournemouth rate 1.05 and 0.99.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ipswich the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Ipswich against 1.72 for Bournemouth. Ipswich's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/0.99 for Bournemouth.
How the model reaches 38% for Ipswich to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ipswich to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Ipswich's ratings take away 2 points and Bournemouth's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Ipswich's ratings39%−2
- Bournemouth's ratings38%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ipswich at home · Bournemouth away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
IpswichBournemouth
Ipswich are 10th after 8 Premier League matches (between 4th and 13th so far); Bournemouth are 17th after 7 (between 12th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Ipswich 8, Bournemouth 7.
Ipswich score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Bournemouth have let in 4 there.
Bournemouth score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Ipswich have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ipswich
- at Tottenham21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Aston Villa28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Coventry2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Leeds5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Bournemouth
- vs Nottingham Forest21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Celta Vigo26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.