Werder Bremen
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Werder Bremen 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
The model makes it 52% Werder Bremen, 24% draw, 24% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Werder Bremen 2.03, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.24.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.
Edge to Werder Bremen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Werder Bremen's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and Borussia Mönchengladbach's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Werder Bremen are 6th on 15 points from 9 games; Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom on 4 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Werder Bremen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to VfB Stuttgart.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Hamburger SV.
- Last 6 meetings: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Werder Bremen 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Has the model earned this number?
Werder Bremen at 52%: of 1,625 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga
- L0-1away to VfB Stuttgart7 November 2026
- W2-01899 Hoffenheim31 October 2026
- W3-2away to FSV Mainz 0524 October 2026
- D2-2SC Paderborn 0717 October 2026
- D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga
- L1-3away to Hamburger SV6 November 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0731 October 2026
- W3-2away to VfB Stuttgart23 October 2026
- L1-21899 Hoffenheim18 October 2026
- L1-2away to 1. FC Köln11 October 2026
What these results say
- Werder Bremen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen have met 6 times in the records we hold, Borussia Mönchengladbach has won 2 of them to Werder Bremen's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Werder Bremen on 31 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 12 |
| Werder Bremen | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 13 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 25 goals, an average of 4.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Jan 2026
BundesligaWerder Bremen 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 14 Sep 2025
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 0–4 Werder Bremen - 15 Mar 2025
BundesligaWerder Bremen 2–4 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 3 Nov 2024
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 4–1 Werder Bremen - 4 May 2024
BundesligaWerder Bremen 2–2 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 15 Dec 2023
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 2–2 Werder Bremen
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Werder Bremen's attack rates 12% above Borussia Mönchengladbach's, and Werder Bremen concede 18% fewer than Borussia Mönchengladbach. That gives Werder Bremen the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| Werder Bremen | 0.92 | 0.98 |
Leading scorers: Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug90
Borussia Mönchengladbach
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Werder Bremen the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Werder Bremen against 1.24 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Werder Bremen's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How the model reaches 52% for Werder Bremen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Werder Bremen to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Werder Bremen's ratings add 5 points and Borussia Mönchengladbach's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Werder Bremen's ratings47%+5
- Borussia Mönchengladbach's ratings52%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Werder Bremen at home · Borussia Mönchengladbach away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Werder BremenBorussia Mönchengladbach
Werder Bremen are 6th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 4th and 16th so far); Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th after 9 (between 17th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Werder Bremen 9, Borussia Mönchengladbach 9.
Werder Bremen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Borussia Mönchengladbach have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Werder Bremen
- at Eintracht Frankfurt5 Dec · Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen13 Dec · Bundesligawin 31%
- at Bayern München18 Dec · Bundesligawin 10%
- vs Union Berlin10 Jan · Bundesligawin 51%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- at Bayer Leverkusen5 Dec · Bundesligawin 15%
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt12 Dec · Bundesligawin 32%
- at FC Schalke 0420 Dec · Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Bayern München9 Jan · Bundesligawin 11%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.