Regular Season - 12 · 27 November 2026, 20:15 UTC

Maritimo vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction

Funchal

Our model says: Maritimo 1–2 Nacional

The model makes it 34% Maritimo, 28% draw, 38% Nacional — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Maritimo 1.34, Nacional 1.44.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Maritimo's rating is built from 10 Primeira Liga matches and Nacional's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 714 matches.

Key facts

  • Maritimo are 15th on 8 points from 10 games; Nacional are 13th on 10 points from 11 games — Primeira Liga.
  • Maritimo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Santa Clara.
  • Nacional have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Academico Viseu.
  • Last 6 meetings: Maritimo 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 August 2025, ended Maritimo 3–0 Nacional.

Other predictions for 27 Nov

All Primeira Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Maritimo vs Nacional

57%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Maritimo win Draw Nacional win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 1–08%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 0–26%

Scores read Maritimo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 41%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Nacional at 38%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Maritimo vs Nacional

Maritimo

Primeira Liga

  • L0-2Santa Clara1 November 2026
  • L0-5away to Vitória SC23 October 2026
  • L1-2FC Porto10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026

Nacional

Primeira Liga

  • W1-0Academico Viseu8 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Arouca1 November 2026
  • W1-0SC Braga25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Rio Ave11 October 2026
  • L0-4Famalicao19 September 2026

What these results say

  • Maritimo did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Maritimo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Maritimo10226921-128
13Nacional113171119-810

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Nacional

  • 3 August 2025Maritimo 3–0 NacionalFriendlies Clubs
  • 23 July 2024Maritimo 2–0 NacionalFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 January 2024Maritimo 3–1 NacionalSegunda Liga
  • 12 August 2023Nacional 1–2 MaritimoSegunda Liga
  • 30 July 2022Maritimo 1–0 NacionalFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 July 2022Nacional 0–1 MaritimoFriendlies Clubs

The full Maritimo vs Nacional record →

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Maritimo Nacional
0.75 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.75
1.52 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.19
1.34 Model expected goals (this match) 1.44

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Nacional the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Maritimo against 1.44 for Nacional. Maritimo's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.19 for Nacional.

How the model reaches 38% for Nacional to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nacional to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Maritimo's ratings add 3 points and Nacional's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage32%−4
  3. Maritimo's ratings35%+3
  4. Nacional's ratings38%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

MaritimoNacional
10Matches11
2W 2D 6LRecord3W 1D 7L
9 0.9 per gameGoals scored11 1.0 per game
21 2.1 per gameGoals conceded19 1.7 per game
1 of 10Clean sheets3 of 11
3 of 10Failed to score4 of 11
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
20 2.0 per gameYellow cards18 1.6 per game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape3-4-2-1 4×

Maritimo at home · Nacional away

5Played5
1W 1D 3LRecord0W 1D 4L
4–9Goals for – against4–9
1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primeira Liga matches this season: Maritimo 10, Nacional 11.

Maritimo scored 030124
Nacional conceded 327231

Maritimo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Nacional have let in 1 there.

Nacional scored 113133
Maritimo conceded 335315

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Maritimo

  • at Sporting CP4 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 6%
  • vs Rio Ave12 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 42%
  • at Estrela20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 25%
  • vs SC Braga27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 19%
  • at Estoril4 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 30%

Nacional

  • vs Benfica5 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 14%
  • at Casa Pia13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 36%
  • vs Moreirense20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 37%
  • at FC Porto27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 8%
  • vs GIL Vicente10 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 30%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.