Burnley
vs
Birmingham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Burnley 1–2 Birmingham
The model makes it 27% Burnley, 26% draw, 47% Birmingham — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Burnley 1.21, Birmingham 1.77.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
One-sided: Birmingham are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Burnley's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and Birmingham's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Burnley are 22nd on 10 points from 15 games; Birmingham are top on 29 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Burnley have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 4-5 defeat away to Cardiff.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Swansea.
- Last 6 meetings: Burnley 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 27 December 2022, ended Burnley 3–0 Birmingham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Burnley vs Birmingham
Has the model earned this number?
Birmingham at 47%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Burnley vs Birmingham
Burnley
Championship
- L4-5away to Cardiff7 November 2026
- D1-1away to QPR3 November 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth31 October 2026
- L1-4away to Lincoln24 October 2026
- L1-2Wolves16 October 2026
Birmingham
Championship
- W2-1Swansea7 November 2026
- W3-0Millwall3 November 2026
- W3-1away to Lincoln31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cardiff24 October 2026
- W3-0QPR17 October 2026
What these results say
- Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Burnley scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Birmingham had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | +14 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Burnley
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
Birmingham
Chance to finish in the top two · 39% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Burnley
Birmingham and Burnley have met 6 times in the records we hold, Burnley has won 3 of them to Birmingham's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Burnley won the last one 3–0 on 27 Dec 2022.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| Burnley | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 27 Dec 2022
ChampionshipBurnley 3–0 Birmingham - 19 Oct 2022
ChampionshipBirmingham 1–1 Burnley - 16 Apr 2016
ChampionshipBirmingham 1–2 Burnley - 15 Aug 2015
ChampionshipBurnley 2–2 Birmingham - 12 Mar 2014
ChampionshipBirmingham 3–3 Burnley - 17 Sep 2013
ChampionshipBurnley 3–0 Birmingham
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Birmingham's attack rates 8% above Burnley's, and Birmingham concede 42% fewer than Burnley. That gives Birmingham the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Burnley | 0.77 | 1.78 |
Leading scorers: Burnley and Birmingham
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske61
- L. Millar43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burnley a 0% chance of the title and Birmingham 21.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Birmingham the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Burnley against 1.77 for Birmingham. Burnley's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.03 for Birmingham.
How the model reaches 47% for Birmingham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Birmingham to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Burnley's ratings add 9 points and Birmingham's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Burnley's ratings39%+9
- Birmingham's ratings47%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Burnley at home · Birmingham away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BurnleyBirmingham
Burnley are 22nd after 15 Championship matches (between 10th and 24th so far); Birmingham are 1st after 15 (between 1st and 15th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Burnley 15, Birmingham 15.
Burnley score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Birmingham have let in 1 there.
Birmingham score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Burnley have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Burnley
- at Millwall28 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Preston6 Dec · Championshipwin 51%
- at Southampton9 Dec · Championshipwin 15%
- at Sheffield Utd12 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
Birmingham
- vs Bolton28 Nov · Championshipwin 61%
- at Charlton5 Dec · Championshipwin 47%
- vs Watford8 Dec · Championshipwin 60%
- at Portsmouth12 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.