Kasımpaşa
vs
Beşiktaş
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Kasımpaşa 1–2 Beşiktaş
The model makes it 28% Kasımpaşa, 27% draw, 45% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kasımpaşa 1.18, Beşiktaş 1.65.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Beşiktaş: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Kasımpaşa are 10th on 10 points from 7 games; Beşiktaş are 4th on 15 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Kasımpaşa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Galatasaray.
- Beşiktaş have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kocaelispor.
- Last 6 meetings: Kasımpaşa 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 March 2026, ended Beşiktaş 2–1 Kasımpaşa.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beşiktaş at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş
Kasımpaşa
- L1-3away to Galatasaray9 October 2026
- D0-0Konyaspor18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 September 2026
- D2-2Amed6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Başakşehir30 August 2026
Beşiktaş
- W2-1Kocaelispor11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Amed20 September 2026
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
- W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
What these results say
- Kasımpaşa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beşiktaş scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Beşiktaş had three goals or more.
- Beşiktaş won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa
Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa have met 6 times in the records we hold, Kasımpaşa has won 3 of them to Beşiktaş's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Beşiktaş won the last one 2–1 on 19 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 |
| Kasımpaşa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 19 Mar 2026
Süper LigBeşiktaş 2–1 Kasımpaşa - 26 Oct 2025
Süper LigKasımpaşa 1–1 Beşiktaş - 7 Apr 2025
Süper LigKasımpaşa 1–1 Beşiktaş - 2 Nov 2024
Süper LigBeşiktaş 1–3 Kasımpaşa - 26 May 2024
Süper LigKasımpaşa 2–1 Beşiktaş - 5 Jan 2024
Süper LigBeşiktaş 1–3 Kasımpaşa
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak41
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kasımpaşa carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.9 for Beşiktaş. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.65 for Beşiktaş. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kasımpaşa rate 0.70 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beşiktaş rate 1.13 and 1.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kasımpaşa a 0% chance of the title and Beşiktaş 13.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beşiktaş the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Kasımpaşa against 1.65 for Beşiktaş. Kasımpaşa's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.02 for Beşiktaş.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kasımpaşa at home · Beşiktaş away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
KasımpaşaBeşiktaş
Kasımpaşa are 9th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); Beşiktaş are 2nd after 7 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Kasımpaşa 7, Beşiktaş 7.
Kasımpaşa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Beşiktaş have let in 2 there.
Beşiktaş score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Kasımpaşa have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Kasımpaşa
- at Gaziantep FK6 Nov · Süper Ligwin 35%
- vs Alanyaspor22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 40%
- at Rizespor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 32%
Beşiktaş
- at Celtic5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 35%
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 66%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.