Başakşehir
vs
Samsunspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Başakşehir 2–1 Samsunspor
The model makes it 62% Başakşehir, 21% draw, 17% Samsunspor — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Başakşehir 2.40, Samsunspor 1.02.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Başakşehir are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Başakşehir are 12th on 8 points from 7 games; Samsunspor are 17th on 4 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Başakşehir have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Konyaspor.
- Samsunspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Trabzonspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Başakşehir 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Başakşehir 3–0 Samsunspor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Başakşehir vs Samsunspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Başakşehir at 62% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Başakşehir vs Samsunspor
Başakşehir
- D0-0away to Konyaspor11 October 2026
- W4-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.19 September 2026
- L0-5away to Amed13 September 2026
- L2-3Galatasaray4 September 2026
- D1-1Kasımpaşa30 August 2026
Samsunspor
- L0-3Trabzonspor10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Erzurumspor FK20 September 2026
- L1-5Çorum FK12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kocaelispor6 September 2026
- L0-2Fenerbahçe30 August 2026
What these results say
- Başakşehir failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Samsunspor
- 9 May 2026Başakşehir 3–0 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 14 December 2025Samsunspor 0–2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 1 February 2025Başakşehir 4–0 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 18 September 2024Samsunspor 2–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 3 March 2024Başakşehir 1–0 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 22 October 2023Samsunspor 0–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Samsunspor
Başakşehir
GoalsAssists
- E. Shomurodov60
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Başakşehir carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.51 for Samsunspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for Başakşehir and 1.02 for Samsunspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Başakşehir rate 1.01 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Samsunspor rate 0.73 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Başakşehir a 0.6% chance of the title and Samsunspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Başakşehir the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Başakşehir against 1.02 for Samsunspor. Başakşehir's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.44 for Samsunspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Başakşehir at home · Samsunspor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BaşakşehirSamsunspor
Başakşehir are 11th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 13th so far); Samsunspor are 16th after 7 (between 2nd and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Başakşehir 7, Samsunspor 7.
Başakşehir score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Samsunspor have let in 3 there.
Samsunspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Başakşehir have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Başakşehir
- at Göztepe7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 41%
- vs Çorum FK23 Nov · Süper Ligwin 49%
- at Eyüpspor29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 60%
Samsunspor
- vs Konyaspor7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 39%
- at Galatasaray21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 12%
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.