Alanyaspor
vs
Kocaelispor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Alanyaspor 1–0 Kocaelispor
The model makes it 39% Alanyaspor, 33% draw, 28% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 2.56, 3.03 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Alanyaspor 1.07, Kocaelispor 0.81.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Alanyaspor are 6th on 12 points from 7 games; Kocaelispor are 7th on 12 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Alanyaspor are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Erzurumspor FK.
- Kocaelispor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Beşiktaş.
- Last 3 meetings: Alanyaspor 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 March 2026, ended Alanyaspor 5–0 Kocaelispor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alanyaspor at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
Alanyaspor
- D0-0Erzurumspor FK10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Çorum FK19 September 2026
- D2-2Göztepe12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rizespor7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Eyüpspor30 August 2026
Kocaelispor
- L1-2away to Beşiktaş11 October 2026
- W2-0Gaziantep FK19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Galatasaray13 September 2026
- W1-0Samsunspor6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Konyaspor29 August 2026
What these results say
- Alanyaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kocaelispor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Alanyaspor
Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today
Kocaelispor
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
- 18 March 2026Alanyaspor 5–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 25 October 2025Kocaelispor 2–0 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 5 December 2023Alanyaspor 1–0 KocaelisporTürkiye Kupası
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Alanyaspor carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.68 for Kocaelispor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Alanyaspor and 0.81 for Kocaelispor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alanyaspor rate 0.71 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kocaelispor rate 0.59 and 0.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alanyaspor a 0.1% chance of the title and Kocaelispor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alanyaspor the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Alanyaspor against 0.81 for Kocaelispor. Alanyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/0.91 for Kocaelispor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alanyaspor at home · Kocaelispor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AlanyasporKocaelispor
Alanyaspor are 5th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 3rd and 8th so far); Kocaelispor are 7th after 7 (between 2nd and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Alanyaspor 7, Kocaelispor 7.
Alanyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Kocaelispor have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Alanyaspor
- at Gençlerbirliği S.K.2 Nov · Süper Ligwin 37%
- vs Trabzonspor8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 29%
- at Kasımpaşa22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 31%
- vs Konyaspor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 44%
Kocaelispor
- vs Rizespor31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 42%
- at Eyüpspor7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 43%
- vs Fenerbahçe21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 23%
- at Çorum FK29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.