Başakşehir
vs
Gaziantep FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK
The model makes it 52% Başakşehir, 26% draw, 22% Gaziantep FK — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Başakşehir 2.23, Gaziantep FK 1.04.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Başakşehir are 12th on 7 points from 6 games; Gaziantep FK are 10th on 8 points from 6 games — Süper Lig.
- Başakşehir have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Gençlerbirliği S.K..
- Gaziantep FK have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Kocaelispor.
- Last 6 meetings: Başakşehir 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Gaziantep FK 1–2 Başakşehir.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Başakşehir at 52% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK
Başakşehir
- W4-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.19 September 2026
- L0-5away to Amed13 September 2026
- L2-3Galatasaray4 September 2026
- D1-1Kasımpaşa30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Trabzonspor23 August 2026
Gaziantep FK
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor19 September 2026
- D0-0Fenerbahçe14 September 2026
- W4-2away to Göztepe7 September 2026
- L1-2Rizespor29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Eyüpspor23 August 2026
What these results say
- Başakşehir failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Başakşehir scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Başakşehir conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Başakşehir | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Gaziantep FK | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK
- 16 May 2026Gaziantep FK 1–2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 22 December 2025Başakşehir 5–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 20 April 2025Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 23 November 2024Gaziantep FK 3–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 24 February 2024Gaziantep FK 0–2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 7 October 2023Başakşehir 2–0 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK
Başakşehir
- E. Shomurodov6 goals
Gaziantep FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Başakşehir carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.56 for Gaziantep FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Başakşehir and 1.04 for Gaziantep FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Başakşehir rate 1.04 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gaziantep FK rate 0.72 and 1.29.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gaziantep FK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Başakşehir a 1.7% chance of the title and Gaziantep FK 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Başakşehir the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Başakşehir against 1.04 for Gaziantep FK. Başakşehir's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.29 for Gaziantep FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Başakşehir at home · Gaziantep FK away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Başakşehir 6, Gaziantep FK 6.
Başakşehir score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Gaziantep FK have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Başakşehir
- at Beşiktaş26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 28%
- vs Samsunspor1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 53%
- at Göztepe7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 41%
- vs Çorum FK23 Nov · Süper Ligwin 49%
Gaziantep FK
- vs Erzurumspor FK24 Oct · Süper Ligwin 45%
- at Trabzonspor1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 20%
- vs Kasımpaşa6 Nov · Süper Ligwin 36%
- at Gençlerbirliği S.K.21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.