Bodrum FK
vs
Ümraniyespor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Bodrum FK 1–0 Ümraniyespor
The model makes it 53% Bodrum FK, 28% draw, 19% Ümraniyespor — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Bodrum FK 1.56, Ümraniyespor 0.73.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Bodrum FK: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Bodrum FK are 10th on 14 points from 11 games; Ümraniyespor are 17th on 7 points from 9 games — 1. Lig.
- Bodrum FK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bandırmaspor.
- Ümraniyespor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sarıyer.
- Last 4 meetings: Bodrum FK 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended Bodrum FK 1–0 Ümraniyespor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bodrum FK at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor
Bodrum FK
- W2-1Bandırmaspor17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Sarıyer13 October 2026
- L0-2Keçiörengücü9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Pendikspor20 September 2026
- W4-0Batman Petrolspor12 September 2026
Ümraniyespor
- D1-1Sarıyer9 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bandırmaspor18 September 2026
- L1-2Antalyaspor12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pendikspor5 September 2026
- L0-1Muğlaspor1 September 2026
What these results say
- Bodrum FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bodrum FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ümraniyespor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ümraniyespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ümraniyespor had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bodrum FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 14 |
| 17 | Ümraniyespor | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor
- 3 April 2026Bodrum FK 1–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
- 23 November 2025Ümraniyespor 1–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 3 February 2024Ümraniyespor 1–2 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 3 September 2023Bodrum FK 4–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
The two sides
Bodrum FK carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.27 for Ümraniyespor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Bodrum FK and 0.73 for Ümraniyespor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bodrum FK rate 0.61 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ümraniyespor rate 0.48 and 1.57.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bodrum FK a 0.7% chance of the title and Ümraniyespor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodrum FK the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Bodrum FK against 0.73 for Ümraniyespor. Bodrum FK's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.57 for Ümraniyespor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bodrum FK at home · Ümraniyespor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Bodrum FK 11, Ümraniyespor 9.
Bodrum FK score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Ümraniyespor have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bodrum FK
- at Boluspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 51%
- vs Vanspor FK23 Nov · 1. Ligwin 59%
- at Sivasspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
- at Kayserispor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 30%
Ümraniyespor
- vs Kayserispor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 33%
- at Iğdır FK20 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.