Iğdır FK
vs
Antalyaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Iğdır FK 1–0 Antalyaspor
The model makes it 39% Iğdır FK, 29% draw, 32% Antalyaspor — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Iğdır FK 1.31, Antalyaspor 1.13.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Iğdır FK are 3rd on 20 points from 10 games; Antalyaspor are 8th on 15 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- Iğdır FK are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Keçiörengücü.
- Antalyaspor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Kayserispor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Iğdır FK at 39% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor
Iğdır FK
- D0-0away to Keçiörengücü14 October 2026
- W2-1Batman Petrolspor10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Muğlaspor18 September 2026
- W1-0Mardin 196913 September 2026
- W2-1away to İstanbulspor7 September 2026
Antalyaspor
- L0-4Kayserispor14 October 2026
- W1-0away to Boluspor10 October 2026
- W3-0Vanspor FK20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Ümraniyespor12 September 2026
- L1-2Sivasspor6 September 2026
What these results say
- Iğdır FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Iğdır FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Antalyaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Antalyaspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 20 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor
- 3 February 2026Iğdır FK 6–0 AntalyasporTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Iğdır FK and Antalyaspor
Iğdır FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Antalyaspor
GoalsAssists
- S. van de Streek32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Iğdır FK carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.49 for Antalyaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Iğdır FK and 1.13 for Antalyaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Iğdır FK rate 0.58 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Antalyaspor rate 0.68 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Iğdır FK a 4.6% chance of the title and Antalyaspor 2.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Iğdır FK the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Iğdır FK against 1.13 for Antalyaspor. Iğdır FK's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.39 for Antalyaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Iğdır FK at home · Antalyaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Iğdır FK 10, Antalyaspor 10.
Iğdır FK score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Antalyaspor have let in 4 there.
Antalyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Iğdır FK have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Iğdır FK
- at Sarıyer6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Ümraniyespor20 Nov · 1. Ligwin 49%
- at Pendikspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
Antalyaspor
- vs Bursaspor6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
- at Esenler Erokspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 32%
- vs Fatih Karagümrük29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.